Set over set

In the March 28 issue of Card Player, Phil Hellmuth discusses a hand featuring set over set. In a sidebar entitled Poker Odds, presumably written by CP staff, the following is stated:

In a 10-handed game in which two players have been dealt pocket pairs, the chance of both players flopping sets is less than 0.1 percent.

I have no desire in calculating this probability and will accept their 0.1 percent. What I do find particularly funny is the redundant pre-condition of "in a 10-handed game". It doesn't matter if it's 10-handed, 5-handed or heads-up; if two players have been dealt pocket pairs, the chance of both players flopping sets is the same.

Disappointing April

After an encouraging start which had me positive for the first 3 days, I couldn't fend off a brutal onslaught of bad beats and second best hands. Despite several attempts at mounting a comeback, I finally succumbed to the fickle whims of variance, and my backers took another severe hit.

Who's the bigger donk?

I needn't remind anyone about the dangers of a paired board. But what can prove deceptively perilous is when the river card pairs the turn card. Following is a hand in which I played worse than the donkey I was up against.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2177715576: Table Antigua (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: jaballthehut2 ($49.75)
Seat 2: HomelessShelter ($97.40)
Seat 4: beavrliquor ($76.50)
Seat 5: k4750 ($19.45)
Seat 6: ALP-TOR ($73.65)
k4750 posts the small blind of $0.25
ALP-TOR posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HomelessShelter [3c Kc]
jaballthehut2 calls $0.50
HomelessShelter calls $0.50
beavrliquor calls $0.50
k4750 folds
ALP-TOR checks
*** FLOP *** [3h Ks 9d]
ALP-TOR checks
jaballthehut2 bets $2.25
HomelessShelter calls $2.25
beavrliquor has 15 seconds left to act
beavrliquor folds
ALP-TOR folds
*** TURN *** [3h Ks 9d] [5d]
jaballthehut2 bets $6.75
HomelessShelter calls $6.75
*** RIVER *** [3h Ks 9d 5d] [5h]
jaballthehut2 bets $20.25
HomelessShelter calls $20.25
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jaballthehut2 shows [Kd Jc] (two pair, Kings and Fives)
HomelessShelter mucks
jaballthehut2 wins the pot ($57.75) with two pair, Kings and Fives
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $60.75 | Rake $3
Board: [3h Ks 9d 5d 5h]
Seat 1: jaballthehut2 showed [Kd Jc] and won ($57.75) with two pair, Kings and Fives
Seat 2: HomelessShelter mucked [3c Kc] - two pair, Kings and Fives

There was no point in calling the $20 river bet, since I had to give him credit for at least a king. Once the 2 fives popped up and my 2 pair were counterfeited, there was a good chance his higher kicker would come into play. As for the flop and turn betting, I believe that he thought he had the best hand throughout and I wouldn't have been able to raise him out of the hand. I still should have raised though.

My, my, you bloggers have been busy

I log into Bloglines and find I have 32,994 unread posts. I check my pulse and pinch myself. What year is it? What if each post is of Hoyazian proportions? Oh well, let's get it over with - should only take a couple of days...... Hello, what's this?

Forewarned is forearmed

The importance of making player notes cannot be overemphasized. Anything that can help me is annotated for future reference. I am meticulous and thorough, trying to encapsulate every facet of my opponent's game in a summary that will be of invaluable assistance when we next meet.

Apparel maketh the man

It looks like I'm finally getting a wardrobe together. Following on from my recent jersey win, I had the good fortune yesterday of taking down Maudie's dorky prize of a matching hat and scarf. All I need now is a decent pair of trousers and I'll be good to go for live games.

KK quandary revisited

In a recent article in Card Player magazine, noted poker authority Bob Ciaffone writes about adjustments for playing deep-stack no-limit hold'em. Especially interesting is the following excerpt:

Do not be overconfident in building or playing second-best hands. I suggest that you be particularly leery when considering whether or not to play a suited king. The second nuts is a very expensive holding when deep in chips. You will win quite a few pots with it, but when the big dough is put into the pot with strong betting, it is seldom the third nuts that is in your opponent's hand. Of course, two kings is a far better hand than a suited king, but the same type of thinking should be applied. I have seen good players tell you in print that you should be willing to play two kings for all of your money, and if you run into two aces, you were just unlucky. I believe that to be good advice under normal circumstances; that is, when you have 100 times the big blind, or less, in your stack. For at least 200 times the big blind, the only preflop through-ticket for your entire stack is pocket aces. If you're not looking at 'em preflop, you soon will be at the end of the hand.

I could not agree more. In fact, this validates my contention in the KK Quandary, where I was in the minority.

Age of Consent

Come celebrate katitude's birthday in a donkament.

Tournament #15387473, Katitude's Poker Night
Password: martini
Date: Friday, March 30
Where: Full Tilt Poker
Time: 9:00 EST
Buyin: $10+ $1
Game: NLHE

A new milestone

Not since July 1968, when Iron Butterfly released the monumental LP, In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida, featuring the 17 minute side-long track, has the entire music industry been so shaken up. I am referring to none other than this year's American Idol star, Sanjaya Malakar, whose powerhouse voice and raw talent catapults him into another league. Kudos to change100 who was quick to unearth his potential and from the outset predicted great things for him.

Feeling creative?

Then go to Mr. Picassohead and emulate the great master. Here's my pathetic attempt:

Cash is king but clothing is fine

I have yet to make the final table of any large online MTT. That is until yesterday.


I get a personalized Full Tilt Poker jersey for my efforts.

DQB permutated

Capitalization is the difference between "I had to help my uncle Jack off a horse.." and "I had to help my uncle jack off a horse.."

Thank Waffles for killing workplace productivity.

@#!% Chat

There's nothing like a well-timed "lol" in the chat box, from a donkey who has just sucked out on you, to put even the most cool and composed player on tilt. I therefore have a policy of turning off all player and observer chat during any game I am involved in. Obviously I make an exception for the blogger tournaments where the chat is 80% of the fun.

On a related note, cracknaces has had his FTP chat privileges revoked for 3 months. I laughed to tears when I read about it, and to him I can unequivocally say, "You're @#!%ing better off without it."

Locate the Lemur II

Go ahead and make the effort to look for these assclowns. Your bankroll will thank you for it.

marco58
TY WEBB 5150
Ranbar007
Steelknght
moon5302

Locate the Lemur

It's comforting to know that there are complete morons playing online. Whenever I witness a donkey play, whether I'm in the hand or not, I make a note of the player's name, both online (player notes) and on paper. At the beginning of each session, I use the Find a Player feature to see if I can locate any of these jackasses, the aim being to get on a table with one (or more) of them. This is table selection exemplified and is very positive EV.

Following is the short list of retards that were added to my compendium this afternoon:

Smitty300
wisker
D-ROBB
LuNAtiC9567
_BuyIt_

The Longest Bubble

I am playing in Full Tilt's $69+$6 $22K NLHE tournament. There are 446 entrants of whom 55 now remain.

It is 21:34 ET, the blinds are 400/800 with a 100 ante. I have T32,000 and am in 20th place. Top 45 get paid.

I am determined to make the money and fold virtually every hand. I even fold 99 UTG, not wanting a possible tangle with the aggressive and larger stacked big blind. I watch how I slowly drop to 21st, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th place.

Exactly 42 hands elapse.

It is 22:05 ET, the blinds are 800/1600 with a 200 ante. I have T15,800 and am in 33rd place, with 46 players remaining. All tables are now playing hand for hand. It is folded around to me in the small blind where I pick up AKo. The big blind has T50,000. I fold.

The bubble bursts and shortly thereafter I go out in 34th place, which pays $123.09. First pays $7,693.50.

What is the moral of this story?

I love math

Taken from actual exams :

Who is this guy?

And what did he do to warrant a personalized avatar? Ran into the bugger in a $10+$1 NLHE MTT.

nh?!

Tried getting into the first FTOPS event by playing in a $50+$5 satellite. I was doing OK with T2000 and blinds at 60/120, when I picked up AA in the small blind. There were 3 limpers so I went all-in. Big blind, who has me covered, calls and everyone else folds. He has KK and of course the board comes 228KK (may the designers of the RNG get avian flu).



Now as if this wasn't enough, stoffer1, whose avatar should be a steaming turd and who wasn't even involved in the hand, types "nh" into the chat box. What is nice about this hand? It is a suckout and his comment shows the immaturity that can only be expected of the typical retarded cretin one finds in these online events. I didn't bother venting my feelings in the chat box. stoffer1 finished in 137th place, with only 92 qualifying for a seat. That was enough for me. And if perchance stoffer1 should take down a major tourney sometime in the future, I leave this post, together with the following meta tags, as posterity for those doing any online searching.

stoffer1 stoffer asswipe poker

I feel better already.

Check or bet?

Dems Quads Beetches!!!

This donktard lost his stack when he kept betting into me with nothing. He went all-in on the river.

Tell us what you really think

Creeping up

I finished 4th in tonight's Mookie and it's only a matter of time before I take down this prestigious title. As usual, a good time was had by all.

What's in a Name?

I like this player's screen name. More good ones here.

Another cash in the Riverchasers

After bombing out in this week's Mookie, I managed to finish 5th in last night's Riverchasers Event #2, hosted by the Reverend Al. I started off inauspiciously and was down to T690 (and last position) very early on. I fought back, building my stack up to a respectable level. The pivotal hand for me was the following:

Full Tilt Poker Game #1673618973: Riverchasers Tour Event #2 (11176593), Table 8 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:13:28 ET - 2007/01/25 (partial)
Seat 1: dnasty13 (1,515)
Seat 2: patryn21 (4,150)
Seat 3: ScottMc (1,490)
Seat 4: -o-LuckTruck-o- (3,215)
Seat 5: noollab (580)
Seat 6: pebble78 (3,216)
Seat 7: MrSubliminal (3,330)
Seat 8: MoonShadow58 (950)
Seat 9: cycleseller (2,571)
pebble78 posts the small blind of 60
MrSubliminal posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSubliminal [As Kh]
MoonShadow58 folds
cycleseller folds
dnasty13 folds
patryn21 raises to 350
ScottMc folds
-o-LuckTruck-o- folds
noollab folds
pebble78 folds
MrSubliminal calls 230
*** FLOP *** [Ad 7c 7h]
MrSubliminal checks
patryn21 bets 300
MrSubliminal raises to 1,200
patryn21 has 15 seconds left to act
patryn21 raises to 3,800, and is all in
MrSubliminal calls 1,780, and is all in
patryn21 shows [7s 9s]
MrSubliminal shows [As Kh]
Uncalled bet of 820 returned to patryn21
*** TURN *** [Ad 7c 7h] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [Ad 7c 7h Qh] [Ac]
patryn21 shows a full house, Sevens full of Aces
MrSubliminal shows a full house, Aces full of Sevens
MrSubliminal wins the pot (6,720) with a full house, Aces full of Sevens




After the flop, I was a 91% dog and was very lucky not to have been eliminated there and then. Of course I could not put him on a 7 and would play the hand the same way tomorrow. That's poker.

Wish me luck

I start work on Monday as a human directional.

Poker Source Online

If you play a decent amount of poker (and since you are reading a poker blog, you probably do), you know that you pay the poker room to play in the form of rake. There is nothing wrong with that; the poker rooms have to make money to stay in operation. But if you could play at a discount, you certainly would, wouldn’t you?

That is where Poker Source Online comes in. Poker Source Online, also known in the online poker community as “PSO,” has partnered with four of the top online poker rooms to offer rakeback to new customers. Anyone who has never had an account at Sun Poker, Full Tilt Poker, Ultimate Bet, or Absolute Poker can have anywhere from 27% to 32% of their rake returned to them, depending on the poker room.

Sure, some rakeback providers work with more rooms than PSO does, but PSO limits the rooms it deals with in order to ensure the highest quality customer service, both from the room and from PSO. If you ever have a question about your rakeback, PSO will be there to help you. Some of the poker room representatives even stop by PSO’s message forum to assist from time to time.

Three of the rooms deposit the rakeback directly into your poker account as cash. There is no need to request a payout from PSO to get your money. One room, Ultimate Bet, pays out in PSO “Points,” which can be accumulated and spent in PSO’s online store. There, you can purchase all sorts of poker goodies, books, DVD’s, electronics, and gift cards (some gift cards are even for poker rooms, so they are as good as cash).

So, if you want to essentially get paid to play poker, it only makes sense to sign up for rakeback at Poker Source Online. You are going to play poker anyway, so reward yourself for it! Visit http://www.pokersourceonline.com for more details.

Not about Neteller

I made the money in last night's Mookie, finishing 7th.



Bubble play was tight and lucko21 used this to his advantage by relentlessly attacking the blinds. His 94 offsuit was too much for Dachrsty's AK, the latter going out in 8th place. I was involved in that hand (JJ) but made a hasty exit when my post-flop feeler bet was raised by lucko. Had it not been bubble time, I would have pushed and also been eliminated. On second thoughts, I would have pushed pre-flop, almost certainly getting lucko out of the hand. When it comes to lucko, I use the "almost" qualifier.



Congrats to wwonka69 for winning the event.

MTT's are fun

It is an immutable fact of tournament life that eventually either you will suck out on someone or they will suck out on you. In sharp contrast to what you will read elsewhere, I present an example of the former. This was an all-in hand and I went on to finish in the money.



Following is another all-in hand and an example of nearly being sucked out on. Preflop I am an 82.3% favorite. The flop gives my opponent 93 outs and from here it is virtually a coin toss (51.5% in my favor). Not surprisingly, my sphincter contracted as the turn and river cards fell (see last visual).

Great Success!!

After thoroughly enjoying myself in The Mookie, I decided to try Al's Riverchasers event. I finished 6th out of 119. May be time to give MTT's another shot?

Blogger vs. Blogger

From the very outset, I have made it a policy of not playing poker online with my fellow bloggers. I make exceptions for special tournaments and have been known to sit in on the odd cash game when I recognize some names. I know I forego much camaraderie and good fun but if I cannot play my natural game then I feel it best not to play at all. When I sit down at a table, I want to win every player's buy-in. I expect everyone to rebuy after they have lost their stack to me, and then my goal is to win that new stack. Rinse and repeat till the player is broke. And that is why I never play poker with friends.

Sometimes the blogger camaraderie is challenged by the inevitable clashes of ego that poker is known to elicit. A recent example is SirFWalgman calling Weak Player a "fucking tool" over a particular hand in a $1-$2 NLHE cash game. Of course, Waffles apologized in the very next post. There have been other uncharacteristic "flareups" in the past, with Mattazuma vs. Hoyazo just one example coming to mind.

Perhaps the only cash game that I've played with any bloggers during the last 24 months occurred a few weeks ago when I spotted Joe Speaker and April in a NLHE game on FTP. I know I folded some reasonably good hands pre-flop when either Joe or April raised; hands that I certainly would have played against anyone else. We talked a bit, laughed some and then bade each other good night.

Thank you!

As 2006 draws to a close, I wish to thank my loyal readership for gracing me with your presence. Hopefully 2007 will be a healthy and prosperous year for you all.

To break the monotony of soup kitchen fare, I have been known to lash out with the occasional binge at McDonald's or even Applebee's. I wish to thank my site's sponsors for making this possible.

Full Tilt Poker - For the best online poker experience

Poker Source Online - Play online poker and earn free poker gifts

Mac Online Poker - The comprehensive site for online poker for Macs

Finally

As evidence of my loyalty to the blogging community, I attach a .jpg wherein the hammer takes down a $11 pot, of which $7 was my final uncalled bet. I'm glad that's out of the way, as it's cost me $167 in failed attempts.

  

Just like a blind date

I am 25 years old again and have been set up with a blind date. She sounds real nice on the phone. The day has finally arrived. I knock on her door and am greeted by one ugly duckling.

Poker equivalent :

WPBT 2006

Thanks to April for organizing the WPBT 2006 Winter Classic at Caesars. It was great meeting up with all the bloggers, too many to enumerate here. I had the pleasure of playing with Bobby Bracelet, Linda, Lou Krieger, Dan, Mattazuma, Jen, Joe Speaker, Pablo, Drizz and many others who will forgive me for not being able to remember them. Gary eliminated me when my QQ ran into his KK.

Congratulations to -EV for winning the event.

2006 on track for consistent year

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, 2006 looks like yet another consistent year for my poker earnings. My current losses amount to $15,571, so I should have little difficulty breaking through the $16,000 barrier by year's end.

  

Pitter Patter

Iggy, a well-known acolyte and dwarf, has moved shop over to Linda. Small step for Iggy, giant leap for mankind.

More dealerese

"Traddoo," announces the same young Asian dealer at the MGM.

"Rive traddoo."

Translation : Apparently someone has posted a live straddle.

Church and State

"Thanks for praying." - Young Asian dealer at MGM Grand.

Concepts in No Limit

Concept No. 11: A big bet is the most relevant and accurate information available.

Concept No. 50: If someone bets the flop and gets two or more calls, anyone who bets a significant amount on the turn should get respect.

From No Limit Hold'em Theory and Practice by Sklansky and Miller

MGM Grand $1-$2 NL. I have about $300 in front of me and open limp from UTG with 99. Five callers comprising EP, MP, button, SB and BB. The flop is

K 9 6 rainbow

SB bets $10, BB folds. I don't find this flop particularly threatening, so I smooth call my set. EP calls, MP goes all-in for $13, and button, SB, myself and EP are the only callers. However, before I call, I make the cardinal error of asking whether I can raise. I know the rule and the answer, of course, is that since the all-in was less than one and a half times the original bet, it cannot be raised. My inattention would cost me dearly.

Turn : 5

SB checks, I check, EP and MP check, and button after a brief pause goes all-in. He has me covered and I am perplexed by the disproportionate size of the bet. I haven't seen this player before and have no read on him. SB instafolds and I cannot help but think that if not for my stupid raise question, I would be facing a much smaller and easily callable bet. Still, I call almost instantaneously, not even thinking about his hand. EP and MP fold.

River : A

He turns over 87o for the nut straight. I reach for my wallet and rebuy in disgust, lessons learned.

Poker Hall of Shame

As a public service, I list some Las Vegas poker room staff that you should try to avoid. They are guilty of being either inept, stupid or spineless, or a combination thereof.

Tiffany (dealer, Bellagio)
Andrew (floor person, Bellagio)
Charlie (brush, Bellagio)
Bryan (dealer, Green Valley Ranch)
Terry (dealer, Venetian)

More to come.

Bob Lassiter RIP

Bob Lassiter passed away at 9:15am on Friday, October 13, 2006.

My deepest condolences to Mary.

Goodbye tampa, my good close personal friend.

Showing Your Hand

In a recent article in Card Player magazine, Barry Tanenbaum gives compelling reasons why you should show your hand :

• You might win.
• You might have misread your hand.
• You may get to see your opponent's hand.
• It speeds up the game.
• It's OK if people see your hand.

Had I read the article a few weeks earlier, it would have saved me a lot of anguish and a couple of hundred dollars to boot.

Where In The World?

Card Player magazine has a regular feature called Where In The World?, whereby readers are invited to send in photos of themselves in exotic settings, with an issue of the magazine prominent in the photo.

I now provide my reading public with a sneak preview of this snapshot taken during my afternoon siesta, which I recently submitted and am sure will be published in the not too distant future. Needless to say, the locale is Vegas, baby, Vegas!

September 11

The morning of September 11 2001 found me in my Queens, NY apartment, 8 miles from the WTC. I was at my desk watching CNBC when the regular broadcasting was interrupted. I could see the smoke from my rooftop.

The last time I had been to the WTC was a few months earlier, when I spent a couple of days visiting a trading firm on the 55th floor of one of the towers. A few weeks prior to that, I had also passed through the building twice a day for a full year, having taken the E train to and from Wall Street.

Things won't ever be the same again.

Phil Gordon in the 9 seat

I wandered into the MGM Grand poker room late Friday afternoon and put myself on the list for $1-$2 NL. They eventually opened a new table and I found myself sitting 2 seats to the right of Phil Gordon. He was filling in some time before a James Brown concert and, true to form, kept the table entertained. When I told him I grew up in Melbourne, Australia, he proclaimed it to be his favorite city in the world, this after spending 4 years travelling in 55 different countries. Phil is a nice guy with good taste.

Angle shooting at Green Valley Ranch?

$1-$2 NL at Green Valley Ranch, Sunday 5am. I have AsAc, there are 2 others in the hand and the pot is $200.

The board is J 5 9 K 9 with no possible flush. At showdown, one player declares "jacks and fives" and shows J5. The dealer (Bryan) pushes the J and 5 forward and announces "jacks and fives". For some reason (length of session, lateness of hour, general weariness) I believe I am beaten and muck my hand face down. Another player then corrects the dealer, pointing out that the winning hand should be jacks and nines. I suddenly realize my mistake and express my displeasure to the dealer for misreading the hand, but of course it is too late. I am sure that had the dealer pushed the jack and 2 nines forward, I would have been alerted to my 2 pair. From the corner of my eye, I discern that the floor (Bruce) prefers to keep a neutral distance.

This is the price one pays for marathon sessions and I only have myself to blame. Still, I know for a fact that Bryan and the player involved are friends and cannot put out of my mind that the player may have suspected an overpair and tried an angle with his declaration, with Bryan adding the final collaborative touch. Or maybe I'm a tad paranoid?

I will be more wary in the future and avoid playing when tired. As for the $200, I'll slowly get it back by regretfully withholding future tips to the mostly professional and friendly GVR poker dealers. Shouldn't take too long.

Schadenfreude? Hardly!

High Stakes Poker on GSN continues to dominate as the leading poker television show, leaving the others way behind. The only complaint I have is that the ratio of actual content to commercial time is about 50:50. Truth be told, I'd watch it if it were 30:70.

In a recent episode, Phil Hellmuth loses his stack to Barry Greenstein after the latter flops a set of deuces. The resulting tirade by Phil, together with commentary by hosts Gabe Kaplan and AJ Benza, provide for great comic relief.

Phil : He had a fucking set. I had him on his fucking small pair. I fucking quit.

Gabe : Phil in a reflective mood here.

AJ : Barry rakes in 150 grand while Phil busts out for the second time.

Phil : I should've fucking quit.

Gabe : More self-examination.

Running Bad - Part II

Using the Sklansky-Chubukov rankings as a reference, an analysis of my hand history shows that my dry patch wasn't that dry after all. In fact it wasn't even a significant deviation from "normalcy". This can partly be explained by the relatively high weighting given to supposedly crappy hands like K7o which, somewhat counterintuitively, ranks higher than the more playable T9s and JTo.

I can only shudder to think what really running bad feels like. But thanks all the same to Huge Junk, undream2 and Drizztdj for the sympathy.

Running Bad - Part I

I had the good fortune of receiving a $35 bonus from an online poker site which I recently played off at a $0.25-$0.50 NL table. Talk about being card dead, I have yet to experience such a dry run of cards in 4 hours of online play. I have the history file and will conduct a more rigorous study of the starting hands with a view to quantifying the extent of my misfortune. Needless to say, this should be viewed as an exercise in reinforcing the statistical nature of the game and nothing more.

A sample of the hands :

Qs Jc
9c Qh
4h Qs
2d 5d
9h Th
7s Qd
Jh Ts
5s Qh
Qc Jh
3s 2c
Qc Jc
5d 8s
Ah 7h
7s 8h
9h 7c
5c 7c
4d 8h
2s Qs
8s 4h
9s 6d
6c 6s
2s 2h
Kc Qh
Kh 7c
5c 8h
9s 8h
4c 3d
Qs 3s
5h 2c
9h Tc
8d Ah
Jh 6d
Kc 9s
3h Ks
4h 6c
9c 8c
Ks 3h
9d Ac
8h Ah
5s Kd
7h 2d
Ad 8s
Jh Qd
8h 5c
Td 3d
3d 6s
9d Ad
Qs 3s
7s 5c
6d 3s
4h As
7h As
9d 6c
9c Jd
Ts 6d
4c 5s
7c Qd
9c As
6c Qh
Kh 4d
3h 2d
Qc Ac
7d Kd
2c Qs
8d 8h
Td Jh
4h Th
9c 4d
4c 6h
4s 2s
7s Qc
Jd 9h
Ac 2c
9c Jc
7d As
2h Qc
9s Js
Ts 8h
4c 6s
7h 6h
Qs 3d
7h Ac
3h 4h
5s Ad
4s Jc
2h Js
6d 2d
9c Jd
5c Kc
3d Ad
Qd Kc
6c 5h
4c 2h
3c 6c
4h 6c
Ts Qc
3s As
5h As
6h 5d
Qd Ts
Jh 6d
7c Td
6c 8c
Jc 2h
Qs 3s
Qd 2h
Jd Kd
9h 5c
Jc Kc
9c 6c
Kh 7d
8c Td
6d 2c

Outclassed at the WPBT

From the moment I sat down, I knew I was dead money and even proclaimed such in a firm but subdued tone. I couldn't have drawn a tougher table :

(1) Stephan
(2) Me
(3) Blinders
(4) Jen Leo and then Mrs Head and then Dawn
(5) Empty seat and then Michael Craig
(6) Chad and then April
(7) Hoyazo
(8) F-Train
(9) Hoff
(10) Empty seat and then Human Head

I intentionally deferred my reading of Harrington on Hold'em, brand new copies of which I still have lying in my shopping cart, in lieu of a painstakingly slow study of Sklansky and Miller's new no-limit book. I have also reverted back to live NL cash games so my tournament play is very rusty. I believe I finished around 50th out of 113, much higher than I expected or deserved. Dawn cracked my A4 offsuit with her AK and received a 10-piece bed-set as my bounty.

Thanks to April for organizing everything, all those that helped her, all the speakers that volunteered their time, Caesar's for the wonderful hosting, InterPoker and Full Tilt for the extras and goodies, and finally all the remarkable bloggers that made this such an unforgettable experience.

And of course congratulations to F-Train for taking it down. Not surprising in the least.

Pauly's WSOP Coverage

Just a sample of what's waiting for you at Tao of Poker. To quote Mike Sexton, "Folks, it doesn't get any better than this!"

I'm in Las Vegas for a second year in a row covering the biggest event ever in the history of poker. I want to be at the Rio everyday and tell you what I see, hear, and smell. I'm not going to sugar-coat the poker coverage and tell you how awesome it is to be at the WSOP. I'm not going to write 2,500 words on how cool it is to see Gus Hansen and Jen Harman and Annie Duke play poker. They are degenerate gamblers just like you and me. They happen to be better at it than us but that doesn't make them rockstars and Gods among peasants.

Poker is a dark and ugly entity. The media has created an aura of nebulous sanctimony and the masses are flocking to it like it's the cure for the void that they have in their sad and empty lives. I should know. I fell for it too. For most of my life I was empty and sad. Poker was the light at the end of the tunnel. I bought the bullshit like everyone else. But unlike you, I got to see behind the scenes of the poker world for the last year. I peeked behind the curtain and saw the great and powerful Oz. And he's not great, nor powerful.

Poker is an old dirty whore. Poker is a $10 crack rock. Poker is an illusion and a momentary distraction from the harsh world that we live in.

Too much parry, not enough thrust

Aikido is a form of martial art that redirects the energy of the opponent to ward off an attack, rather than blocking it. It is the approach I adopt in no limit cash games and results in trapping aggressive opponents. While this style works for me, I believe I am lying in wait too much and not going on the offensive enough.

If I could comfortably switch back and forth between these 2 modes during a session, I believe my game would be elevated to an even higher level of mediocrity.

Gambler's Book Shop

Whenever the need arises, it gives me great pleasure to go downtown and spend some time browsing at the Gambler's Book Shop. Located in a decrepit area of downtown frequented by derelicts not unlike myself, the store is a cornucopia of books, magazines, CD's and DVD's on every conceivable gambling subject.

Acquiring a copy of the much heralded and just published "No Limit Hold'em Theory and Practice" by David Sklansky and Ed Miller was the purpose of my visit.

South Coast

Last weekend I finally visited the South Coast poker room. It is a typical Las Vegas low-limit room with a mix of locals and tourists. I played 2 sessions of $1-$2 NL and was pleased with both the results and my play.

I may put low buy-in MTT's on temporary hold while I attempt to capitalize on my recent good run in cash games.

Freeroll

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!
This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive to Bloggers.
Registration code: 7330476

From tiger to pussycat

It's $1-$2 NL, I'm in the big blind with JJ, LAG in mid-position raises to $10, all fold to me and I call. I have about $100 and he has me covered.

The flop is

8 5 3 rainbow

I bet $10, LAG calls. From his previous betting behavior, I put him on AK or similar, but not an overpair.

Turn : T

I bet $20, he calls. I'm not so sure about his AK anymore.

River : 7

I push, he calls and takes down the pot with AA.

A few hands later I look down to see QQ in early position. I limp, it's raised to $10 by the button and I'm the only caller.

The flop is

6 4 2

I check, button bets $10 and I fold. I'm not risking my stack on third best overpair.

Tournaments

I'm enjoying moderate success in the low buy-in online MTT's. I have often wondered what live tournament players do in between tournaments - that is, those that don't play cash games. At least online, there is non-stop action.

My renewed interest in MTT's may result in participation in some online WSOP satellites over the next few weeks. I've lived in Vegas for over 3 years now, and have not yet personally witnessed a WSOP event, let alone played in one. I plan on allocating no more than $200 toward the satellites, so the chances of me finally stepping foot in the Rio are very slim indeed.

Cracked Aces

This beautiful graphic comes from here.

The Cost of Doing Business

The cost of sitting at a $1-$2 NL table in a Strip casino is about $10 per hour. This includes the rake, tips to dealers and cocktail waitresses and assumes that I am being dealt average cards and am playing against average players. The figure stays about the same for $2-$5 NL, so it is more cost efficient to play at that level (bankroll permitting) if one measures success in terms of big blinds per hour.

Should I wish to, I could lower my hourly nut by playing tournaments or by playing online.

Classic misplay?

The Station casinos are rewarding 50 hours of play in April and May with a $200,000 freeroll tournament. In a bid to chalk up a few hours, I found myself sitting at a $1-$2 NL table at the Green Valley Ranch. Most of the players were locals with an even balance between loose aggressives and tight passives.

With about $130 in front of me, I open limp from early position with 99. There are 5 callers including the button and the blinds. The flop comes

Q T 9 with 2 hearts

I check, player to my left bets $10, next player folds, button raises to $25 and the blinds fold. I think there's at least a 50% chance the button has me beat and I put the initial bettor on a flush draw.

I push (both my opponents have me covered), the initial bettor folds and the button calls after about 10 seconds of deliberation. He shows the nuts (KJo) and takes down the pot when I fail to improve.

Should I just have called the button's raise instead of pushing? An examination of my pot equity reveals an interesting phenomenom. If it is 2-handed between the button and myself and we assume he has the straight, my pot equity is 35%. If it is 3-handed and we assume the initial bettor is on a flush draw, my pot equity not only doesn't decrease, it actually increases to 35.5%, with the button giving up 26% equity to the flush draw. This apparent paradox is explained by Morton's Theorem. I have yet to factor in other variables such as fold equity and the probability that the button actually does have the straight.

The aim here is to maximize my winnings and I'm not so sure I did.

Another try at MTT's?

I have concentrated on live no limit cash games to date. After an interesting conversation with CJ while he was in Vegas, I have decided to look into re-entering the tournament scene. Initially it will be low buy-in stuff and will be in addition to the NL cash games.

As usual, I am enjoying great success when pitted against other opponents. However, this is all pretty much negated by my inability to conquer myself.

8 minus 4

I was busy folding at a $1-$2 NL table at the Aladdin yesterday afternoon when from the corner of my eye I spotted none other than CJ signing up for a tournament. Sure enough he was in town en route to the charity gala at the Playboy Mansion. I had the pleasure of playing with him for a short while before we met up with Joe Speaker, Change100, Pauly, his friend Senor, and Jason Spaceman, all of whom had come to play in the 1:00pm tournament. Although he didn't place, Senor lasted the longest and then they were off to the Excalibur for some sports betting.

Surprise meetings are the best.

Zen and Retribution

I am currently reading Larry W. Phillips' Zen and the Art of Poker. On page 48 he states :

POKER RULE #34: Detach yourself emotionally from the game.

Does this mean I can't get even with that dipshit who slowrolled me? Every rule has its exception.

Local garbage at Caesar's

You would think I would have learned by now. Every once in awhile I commit the offense of making a large reraise with the second nuts.

I have As5c which makes me the nut flush on the turn. Like a lemur, I check. The river is a ten of spades making a straight flush possible with Qs. I bet $50, fucktard makes it $100, and I go all-in with my remaining $200. I call him fucktard only because he took a full five seconds to call, five seconds which made me think I had won the pot. He then sheepishly turns over the Qs to which I say "Nice hand, next time don't slowroll, pig!" The local Las Vegas poker world is small and you can be sure I will get the opportunity to slowroll him back, not to mention the constant barrage of below the radar insults I will hurl his way.

But back to the gist. What's the point of reraising in this situation if I'll only get called by a better hand? I lost my stack, got slowrolled to boot, and have thus gained the painful learning reinforcement which will keep me out of trouble till who knows when.

They can't leave me alone

 
There's nothing like a $35 "welcome back" bonus to get one's feet wet again in donkeyland.

Limit hold'em against idiots

The Aladdin is having a $50,000 NLHE freeroll tournament on March 5 for those that have clocked 60 hours of play during the months of January and February. At this stage, it looks like about 120 people will qualify.

I've put in my 60 hours, most of it at the 3-6 limit hold'em tables. In retrospect, I should've stuck to 1-2 NL as generally it is less lemurish. A typical 3-6 hand :

I raise on the button with 88 and get two callers.

Flop : K 7 3       Check, check, I bet, call, call.

Turn : J            Check, check, I bet, call, call.

River : A           Bet, call, I fold.

Lemur takes down the pot with Q7o. Jackass doesn't show.

A variation of the KK quandary

I am UTG (under the gun) in a $1-$2 NL cash game with about $175 in front of me. I look down to see KK and decide to limp in. Two more limp in behind me and the button raises to $10. Small blind folds, big blind raises it to $35. The big blind is a playah who is aggressive and mixes it up. I push all-in.

All fold to the button who goes into the tank and then folds. Big blind, who has me covered, instacalls and turns over AA. I lose my stack.

Could I have played this any better?

Finally a show worth watching

I highly recommend GSN's High Stakes Poker on Monday nights, which is proving to be the best TV poker show by far. Sammy Farha, Doyle and Todd Brunson, Jennifer Harman, Barry Greenstein, Daniel Negreanu, Ted Forrest and many others are featured playing in a NLHE cash game. Last night's episode will be repeated a few times during the week and is well worth seeing, if only for the final hand.

Hi ho, hi ho...

 
Nothing much new to report. I've been selected for "house duty" for February so my playing time is limited. Once a year, every guy living at the shelter is expected to spend a month cleaning, cooking, gardening and anything else required for the common good of all the residents. Sleeping outside is dangerous and no longer an option, so it's a small price to pay for the luxury of a roof over my head.

Welcome!

 
My fellow Irish homeless ...

Wages of Sin

 
I have the moral fiber of a used car salesman. No sooner had I outlined my SnG goals than I decided to try the $10 SnG's with only 15 buy-ins. I lost four in succession and plonked myself down in a $1-$2 NL cash game with $100 and change. After a few hands, I was crippled when my KK ran into AA leaving me with $30. I eventually got down to $14, when I tripled up with AA and continued playing till I hit $200.

Now the logical thing to do would be to go back and give the $10 SnG's another shot. But after winning $186 in a couple of hours, I find the prospect of returning to a $2 per hour grind rather unattractive and prefer the $1-$2 NL. Needless to say, this line of approach will decimate any bankroll, be it six digits or three.

Progress

I am enjoying continued success in the $5 SnG's at Full Tilt, having built my bankroll from $50 to $150 in 8 days. Surprisingly, I am still not tempted to start playing $10 SnG's, preferring to wait until I have at least 25 buy-ins. I may compromise on 20. Had I been this disciplined in the past with money management, I wouldn't be playing $5 SnG's today.

American Woman

Years of selfless voluntary work, together with a charming and flawless personality, have finally paid dividends. I've been asked to be an official chaperone for one of the contestants in the Miss America Pageant to be held later today at the Aladdin Resort and Casino. This entails accompanying the candidate to all the pre- and post-event functions, not to mention a change in socks and underwear. So far we have hit it off pretty well despite the age and height difference. I have been giving her pointers on how best to respond to the judges' questions, and later this afternoon will critique a private rehearsal of her swimsuit presentation. Her deportment should be fine; it's mine that I'm concerned about.

Ryan's Express

From the moment Ryan eliminated me in the 2005 WPBT Winter Classic, no mean feat against a player of my caliber, I knew he was destined for greatness. I had not, however, anticipated the speed in which this greatness would materialize. Yesterday, Ryan took down first place in the opening event of the LA Poker Classic, the $300+$30 No Limit Hold'em tourney, for a $113,583 payday.

Congratulations, Ryan. You have set the bar.

Sit N Go Sunday

 
It's no secret that I have long since abandoned Sit N Go's and MTT's in favor of cash games. Nevertheless, my good, close, personal friend Bobby has been urging me to look into the former with particular emphasis on the strategies espoused in Kill Phil. Now I am a stubborn bastard at the best of times and rarely listen to the advice of others. But somehow his repeated exhortations breached my thick skin and today I decided to play some exploratory $5 SnG's on Full Tilt, leaving the appropriation of the aforementioned book to a date in the near future.

I played 8 SnG's with the following results :

1st place - 1 time
2nd place - 1 time
3rd place - 4 times
4th place - 2 times

for a 64% ROI. Clearly this is a very small sample space, so there is plenty of room for reversion to the mean. Also this is a very low limit, so the competition is below average. The point, however, is that at all times I felt in full control of both myself and the game, and was rarely surprised by anything thrown at me. And even more interestingly, it was obvious that there were a couple of players who were playing what I can only guess to be something akin to a Kill Phil strategy - naturally they were my toughest competition and they always made the money.

I have played $100 and $200 SnG's in the past. It's a pity Kill Phil wasn't available back then. But even if it had been, the question remains whether I would have had the discipline to implement it religiously.

Have you seen this cart?

 
We are barely two weeks into the New Year, and already someone has stolen my shopping cart. The bastard cut through a cable lock securing the cart to the street light under which I read. More on this when I return from filing a police report.

Shuffle up and deal

I've spent about 40 hours in dealer's school, learning to shuffle and pitch cards together with the mechanics of dealing hold'em, seven card stud and omaha. The manager of a strip casino poker room has been gracious enough to let me come in and practice dealing tournaments. I've had two practice sessions to date. On my first, I was so nervous I could barely hold the deck of cards without shaking. One player sensing my discomfort said, "It's only a $40 buy-in tournament - don't be so nervous." My pitching left a lot to be desired with cards flying everywhere. I even managed to deal the cocktail waitress a hand as she was passing by.

The second session went a little better, but I was still jittery. It's amazing how difficult it is actually sitting in the box after having played so many hours on the other side. There is plenty of room for improvement, but with each practice hopefully my confidence will grow and the anxiety will subside.

2006 - off to a great start!

 
Yes, yes, yes! I will be sailing on a luxury poker cruise in March. I cannot divulge full details at this stage, but it will involve an online poker site, 6 WSOP bracelet holders and some of the best tournament pros all vying for a $5 million prize pool. Naturally I'm excited as hell, as this will be my first cruise as a galley hand.

Recognition from the general public

I end the year with the smug satisfaction that my reputation as a poker player is now gaining nationwide momentum. It has even reached this relatively obscure Florida-based blogger, who now joins my rapidly expanding fan base.

Thank you, Florida-based blogger.

Bunching in hold'em

In the 2+2 thread "Button play: Number of folds matter?", Mason Malmuth posted the following on 27 August 1997 :

The bunching factor is the idea that as people throw away their hands it tends to leave a remaining deck that is better in "good" cards. Years ago I did some programming on draw lowball and was able to show that the bunching factor did have a noticeable effect once many hands were passed. However, in hold 'em I have always felt that the bunching factor's effect would be insignificant. This is because you are only dealt two cards as opposed to five and many of the hands that you throw away will consist of a "good" card and a "bad" card.

Recently, Wayne Russel did some programming for us and he essentially verified our results. That is despite what you may occasionally read elsewhere, the bunching factor has essentially no effect in hold 'em. Put another way, if you are on the button in a full game and everyone passes, the distribution of hand strength that you will face from the blinds will be approximately the same as the distribution of hand strength you would face if you were on the button in a three handed game.

A few months later JP Massar came along and showed that according to his simulations, there was evidence of bunching in Hold'em ("Bunching in Texas Holdem: Simulation Results", 25 January 1999) :

Depending on your assumptions about how the other players play, there is a 'bunching' effect in Hold 'em, as I will show via simulation results below.

Whether or not the magnitude of this effect is enough to influence how you play is left to the reader, or for further analysis by experts...
...
...

I confirmed this in a separate post in the same thread :

Nice work. I can also confirm the "bunching" effect for a sim I just completed, the assumptions being that the 7 players before the button play S&M Groups 1-5 only.

Probability of button having Group 1-5 hand = 0.181

Probability of button having Group 1-5 hand given all 7 players folded before him = 0.197

Like you, I leave the interpretation of these results to the readers.

So while the "bunching effect" was there, we were hesitant to conclude whether it was exploitable or not. Mason Malmuth has just written a very interesting article in the December 2005 issue of 2+2 Internet Magazine in which he shows how bunching can be effectively used in hold'em :

Last time we looked at why the idea of bunching, as it is normally used, is fairly worthless in hold 'em games. That is if you are at a full table, are in late position, and everyone has passed to you, it does not mean that the chances of running into a strong hand have gone up over what standard probability would dictate. Part of the reason for this is that hands that players normally fold are made up of big and little cards, while other hands which are frequently played are not necessarily made up of just large cards. Today let's look at a couple of different examples.

Suppose you are in late position and hold

3c 3d

There is a raise by a player in early position, and three other players call him. Should you call the two bets cold?

First notice that you almost always need to flop a set if you play to win the pot, and that it is 7½-to-1 to flop a set with a standard 52-card deck. Furthermore, just because you do catch that third trey, it doesn't mean that you have a guaranteed winner. We have all flopped sets and have gotten them cracked, and that's not any fun. So what this means is that your implied odds when you flop a set and win need to be higher than 7½-to-1. I think that 10-to-1 is probably about right.

Notice that in this spot you're likely to get immediate odds from the pot of approximately 5-to-1 since there is blind money in there as well as the other four active players, and one or more of the remaining players, including the blinds, may come. So this means you need to make on average an additional five double-sized bets those times you flop a set and have your hand hold up for this call to be correct. In many games that seems like a tough order to me, so the obvious conclusion is that the pair of treys should quickly hit the muck.

But not so fast. Let's think a little about bunching. Since the initial raiser is in early position, he should have a good hand which probably does not include a trey. Furthermore, by the same argument, none of the callers should hold a trey. Of course a trey could be out there in the discarded hands, but in this situation there are fewer of them than normal. So it seems to me that it is a little more likely to flop your set here than it would typically be. My educated guess is that instead of being 7½- to-1 to catch that third trey, a better estimate is more like 5-to-1.

This means that your implied odds don't need to be 10-to-1 to make this hand playable. Indeed 7-to-1 might be acceptable, and that should be easily achievable those times you make a set and it holds up. So I'm definitely playing any small pair here.
...
...

The old KK quandary...

Finally, some sorely lacking poker content. Shelly recently posted an interesting hand she played at the Trump, Atlantic City :

What would you do?

I'm going to leave out most of the information regarding reads I had on my opponents. If you care to respond, please explain what you'd do and why. I'll update with my reads and what really happened.

You're at Trump in the 2/5 $200 max NL game. You've got about 4x the max buy-in in front of you (800). A tilting short-stacked player limps ahead of you (his stack: <75). You raise 5x the big blind to 25 (standard raise for this table is 20). You have KK. Action folds to the big blind, who pushes all in. He has you covered (ie. he's got more than 800 in chips in front of him). Tilting short-stack calls all-in.

What do you do? Call or fold?

I left the following comments to the above post :

For me, this is a clear fold. There is no need in putting the BB on a range of hands nor for any EV calculations. With only $25 invested in the pot, great confidence in my post-flop playing ability, and all the time in the world, I don't feel the need to risk my entire stack (four buy-ins) no matter what he's holding. And while I said before there's no need for any hand reading here, for the BB to risk $800 pre-flop there is a good chance that he has AA. But even if he has 93o, good luck to him. To be honest with you, I wouldn't even be interested in knowing what he had. This ain't no tournament. I'm folding. Next hand.

Of course if I only had $200 (one buy-in) in front of me, I would insta-call.

Absent any other concrete information, this is an automatic fold for me. The last person I want to tangle with is the other large stack, unless of course I'm certain that I have a substantial advantage. So yes, I'd call in a heartbeat if I had AA. And if he showed 66, I'd call with 77. But here, I muck the kings, face down and very quickly.

Shelly has since posted a follow-up in which she outlines the reasoning behind her play and I urge you to spend the time to read it as I will not repeat it here.

Great post and thanks for sharing, Shelly. I've already outlined my opinion in the comments section (above) and even though I disagree with her, I believe there is no right or wrong decision here, just a matter of preference. This becomes even more apparent after we are informed of Big-stack's previous predilection for the all-in move.

Without trying to proselytize, allow me to provide some further food for thought vis-a-vis probabilities and stack sizes. The odds Shelly states of having a KK vs. AA matchup do not take into account conditional probability. Given the size of his bet, his penchant for all-ins notwithstanding, the probability of his holding AA could lie in a subjective range anywhere from 20% to 80%. She has given us his holdings (AK twice, AQ, JJ, and TT) for his previous all-in moves. But what did he have on the previous Degree All-In Moments when Shelly had raised 5 BB? Is there even a data set? So her perceived edge may not have been as high as she initially thought, perhaps 60% favorite or even less.

Let's assume she was 60% favorite. Poker is all about applying small edges repeatedly. I can apply small edges repeatedly when my stack size is similar to most other players'. Forgetting the smaller pots for the moment, each all-in with me as 60% favorite will, in the long run, yield me $x. No problem, bring 'em on. When I have my little edge, there will be no shortage of opportunities to make $x. And the law of averages will take care of me. But what happens when I'm the large stack and there's only one other at the table? Sure, my expected gain per showdown is $y, where y>>x, but I'd like to be able to apply this edge repeatedly, not just once every 20 sessions, or how often it is that I and at least one other soul are fortunate enough to quadruple up. Naturally there is a point at which I'm willing to turn a blind eye to this social inequity, but I'd have to be 80% favorite or better. I'm assuming that I'm playing at the highest level my bankroll permits and that the maximum buy-in is capped.

Shelly's point of view is legitimate in that poker is one long session. She's young and has more time than I do.

Only 3 more days...

 
I can hardly wait for New Year's Eve.

Look what I won in a Sit N Go!

 

For those who need reminding...

poetic license n. The liberty taken by an artist or a writer in deviating from conventional form or fact to achieve a desired effect.

SnailTrax RIP

It is with great regret that I report that Daddy has pulled the plug on his blog, SnailTrax. His contributions to poker blogging in general, and animal husbandry in particular, will be missed.

Rock bottom?

 
If someone hadn't been so selfish and had sent me their winning SnG strategy, I wouldn't be spending this Christmas Eve singing carols for handouts outside the Applebee's on Desert Inn and Maryland Parkway. Where is the selfless idealism, the willingness to lend a helping hand, the spirit of sharing? Only in movies and blogs, that's where.

Happy Holidays, everyone!

Poker according to Felicia

I currently subscribe to 141 poker blogs. As I am limited to 30 minutes of internet access per day, this necessitates culling and skimming on my part when going through the dozens of new posts each day.

Felicia has an interesting slant on the future of poker. It is a very long post but I didn't skip a word. I'm sure you won't either.

Happy Birthday, Mr Subliminal

This Wednesday, December 21 2005, marks the first anniversary of this blog. Ironically it wasn't a poker blogger who inspired me to start this little venture, but rather a friend living in Tampa, Florida, who had just started a blog of his own. It has been an enriching experience, due in no small part to the supportive community of poker bloggers I happen to be a part of. I never in my wildest dreams thought that one day I would have a paying sponsor, and I am grateful to Full Tilt Poker for the opportunity.

Here's to another year!

Radio Days

 
This morning I'm tinkering around with my crystal radio set, as I'm wont to do on days when I don't feel like getting out of bed. I love catching broadcasts from all over the world and today I land on WQAM, apparently a Miami-based sports station. Some talk-show host called Neil is taking a call from some guy called Bob. They talk for about 10 minutes and I find it rivetting. Then some music and I fall asleep for a few minutes, awaken and try tuning in to another random radio frequency.

You gotta love the poker bloggers...

It's not easy being penniless in Vegas, especially when you're out of work. So when a certain blogger invited me to join him today for a helicopter tour of the Grand Canyon, I jumped at the opportunity. We took off in idyllic weather and as I had taken this trip before, I felt no shame in dozing off.

I awoke to the magnificent sight of the approaching West Rim of the Grand Canyon and to the surprising thrusts of the aforementioned blogger who had by now unbuckled my seat belt, opened the side door and pushed me halfway out of the chopper. Any struggle was futile and I decided to conserve my strength by trying to maneuver myself down onto the landing rails, where I could ride out the rest of the journey. I knew I was the victim of some kind of prop bet, what with all the degenerate bloggers in town, so I didn't take it personally.

Apparently news of this little escapade had reached most local TV stations, as a throng of reporters were waiting at the tarmac for our return. The last 10 miles were the hardest for me, as by then I was literally hanging with both arms from the rails.

Who was the mysterious blogger? What exactly was the prop bet and why was I singled out? Who cares? All I know is that I start with
Cirque du Soleil on Wednesday!

What a blast!

The general consensus seems to be that the only thing disappointing about yesterday's WPBT Winter Classic was that I didn't win it. I was eliminated in 32nd place by Ryan, whose KJ took down my AQ. StudioGlyphic emerged victorious among the 107 bloggers who participated - well done Phillip!

Bill Rini is to be congratulated for organizing an event that proved to be a huge success, with PokerProf, Linda, CJ and others lending a hand. PokerStars added $2,000 to the prize pool and, together with Full Tilt Poker, gave away hats, t-shirts and other goodies. Guest speakers were Barry Greenstein, Charlie Shoten and Michael Craig, all of whom made interesting presentations. To round everything off, the Imperial Palace poker staff were both professional and friendly.

I met many wonderful bloggers and will not list them by name - there are too many. Even though I made a conscious effort to introduce myself to as many new faces as possible, I am aware that there were many bloggers I didn't meet. Hopefully next time.

omg

I awoke in a cold sweat, unsure if it was a nightmare or reality. I still had no airline tickets for the WPBT Winter Classic in Vegas. Would it be too late to make a booking? I looked at my watch but it wasn't on my wrist. What was happening?

Then it slowly dawned on me. I actually live in Vegas and my watch was in the pawn shop. I smacked my forehead and went back to sleep.

Whoops!

Day Three: The Final Table Takes Shape
Michael Gracz had a quick fall on day three, busting out in the first round when Don Zewin moved all in after a flop of
A♠ 9♦ 4♦. Gracz called with the A♦ K♣ (pair of aces), but Zewin showed pocket nines (9♥ 9♠) for middle set. Another ace on the turn gave Gracz four outs to survive, but the river card was the 2♣. Gracz was out in 28th place, but only the top 27 received POY points. Somewhere, John Phan let out a sigh of relief as his quest for the Player of the Year award survived another scare.

"Tournament Report : Doyle Brunson North American Poker Championship" by BJ Nemeth, from the latest Card Player magazine, November 23, 2005 (Vol. 18, No. 23)

BJ Nemeth does a commendable job with his tournament writeups for Card Player magazine. His proofreader, however, should be more alert. After the turn, Gracz has seven outs to survive and not four, as stated in the article.

On target for 2005

 
As the above graph depicts, I have completely depleted my poker bankroll and am now living on fumes. I was hoping for a bout of positive variance to reverse the trend, but, alas, it was not to be. This makes the task of winning the upcoming WPBT Winter Classic even more crucial.

Flushes and boats

Congratulations to Heafy for correctly solving my riddle. This leads me into some interesting observations I made about the frequency of flushes and full houses (boats) based on the statistical reports of Turbo Texas Hold'em, which I posted to 2+2 in August, 1998.

Contrary to the mathematics of a 52 card deck, a tight player will end up with more full houses than flushes. By "end up" I don't necessarily mean winning the hand (though this also holds true for hands won), so theoretically the hand could have been made on the flop and folded on the turn or river, or, of course, beaten. An average player will experience about the same number of fulls and flushes, while a loose player reverts to the statistical norm and has more flushes (both hot and cold) than full houses. For a given tight player, the difference is greatest when he's under the gun, and as the starting hand possibilities increase with position so does the gap between fulls and flushes close, till we reach the button where the number of fulls and flushes is about equal. The small blind then reverts back to UTG conditions, while the big blind, not surprisingly, is the only position (for a tight player) where flushes outnumber fulls, as nature intended them to do.

The European variation of 5 card draw, which I've played a fair bit of, has 2-6 removed ie. uses a 32 card deck. In this game, as opposed to its American 52 card counterpart, flushes beat full houses. This is because flushes are less frequent than fulls in a 32 card (7-A) deck. The tight player in hold'em (especially in the early positions) has also in effect removed 2-6 from his starting hands. This may partially explain the phenomenom described above.

Give a dog a bone

If no one correctly answers my riddle, I will offer the solution as my bounty in the WPBT Winter Classic.

The local philanthropists really outdid themselves yesterday when they threw a Thanksgiving spread for the boys. Most of us have no family to speak of, so we were very grateful.

Lifeline II

The game is no limit 5 card draw. Two players are left in a hand which has reached showdown. One is all in and the pot is a little over $500. The called player tables 3 kings (three of a kind). The other player, who is sitting to my immediate right, peeks at his hand lifting the cards up just enough for me to see a queen high straight, and then mucks. We continue playing.

Would anyone care to explain this apparent conundrum?

Lifeline

I've always enjoyed watching Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, especially in a group setting. I am the undisputed champion here at the shelter and the boys have set up a fund to get me a ticket to New York so that I can audition for the real thing. We've collected $12.57 to date, and at this rate I should be airbound sometime in the fall of 2007. One can only hope that the show will still be in production then.

So it was with great interest that I read that fellow poker blogger Jason Kirk will be going to NYC in 2 weeks to audition for WWTBAM. As a gesture of solidarity, I hereby offer my Phone-a-Friend list to Jason so that he may have this unparalleled intellectual firepower at his disposal.

Subjects                                                        Phone-a-Friend
Human biology, literature                                     Daddy

Animal kingdom, music                                        Daddy

Food, Kathy Liebert                                              Daddy


Good luck, Jason!!

It's the little things

I can barely contain my excitement. It's November and that means hot soup is being served again. It's the least they can do to compensate for the lack of heat.