Monday, June 27, 2016

QQ and the flop

It seems like every time I have QQ, an ace or king appears on the flop. This is substantiated by the math which puts the percentage at 41.43%. There is therefore the tendency to either check on the flop, or even fold when faced with a bet when an ace or king flops.

However, invoking Bayes' Theorem, the probability that our opponent is holding at least one ace, given that there is at least an ace on the flop, is 12.1%. This is the figure to keep in mind before thinking about ditching the ladies.

Thursday, June 02, 2016

Slowrolling a slowroller

There's a 2/5 regular at the Aria who is notorious for his slowrolling. That and his constant walking from the table. He'll play for 10 minutes and then disappear for half an hour, especially when he's up.

So last week, holding QQ in a heads-up pot against this guy with betting pre-flop, post-flop and on the turn, I finally went all-in for my last $230 on the river. The board was ten high and jerkoff says "call", so I turn over my queens. Rather than show his cards, he slowly and methodically counts out the $230, $25 stacks at a time, a process that lasts about 10 seconds, and pushes it forward. Then, apparently as an afterthought, he turns over AA.

Fast forward to last night. Asshat raises to $25, there are 3 callers so I call rather loosely with 9s6s on the button. I put dickwad on AK or QQ+.

Flop : Ts Qs 4h

Shithead bets $75, and there are 2 callers including myself.

Turn : 8c

I now have a well-disguised gutshot to go with my flush draw. Fuckface bets $100, and only I call.

River : 7h

Bingo! Douchebag glances over at my remaining $132, counts out $125 and pushes it across the line. There's no way he has J9, so I effectively have the nuts. I start the Hollywooding which is basically tanking accompanied by occasional head shaking and audible muttering.

I slowly count out $125, stare pitifully at the remaining $7 and shake my head again. At least 2 minutes have gone by, but I am not worried about any possible later reaction from the rest of the table as I don't have the nuts.

Another minute passes, and rather than just calling and having him show first and then slowroll him again, I decide that he has had enough, and opt for the extra $7 by going all-in. He calls, I show, and he flings his cards angrily into the muck. If looks could kill.