Saturday, August 25, 2007

What's happening?

I'm currently reading Anthony Holden's Bigger Deal, kindly sent to me by Decker. It's an entertaining read and I'm learning tidbits I never knew about the poker world. I highly recommend it.

On the philanthropic front, some local Las Vegas businessmen have taken pity on our living conditions here at the shelter and have pledged to replace our antiquated and uncomfortable bunks with some state-of-the-art stuff, pictured below.

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Parents of the Year

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Walking the floor

As a much needed form of regular exercise, I will often spend 1 or 2 hours pacing up and down the floor of a large strip casino. This is usually done between the hours of 7 and 9am, 6 days a week with a rotating list of 10 different casinos. Of course it's not really about the exercise, but rather the opportunity to find lost coins, chips and any other valuables dropped by the previous night's revellers. Here is a sampling of this week's booty:

Sunday, August 05, 2007

Aces holding up

Hoyazo has had an incredible run with pocket aces, having them hold up 41 times in succession.

Btw the actual best part about my play on Sunday was the 4-for-4 I went with pocket Aces. This brings my total since I started using pokertracker to 41 wins in 41 times dealt pocket Aces. Average pot size is still over $85 won per time dealt the best starting hand in holdem. And keep in mind, this is over 13,500 hands, meaning that I should have been dealt pocket Aces my 1/221 of the time, representing 61 times I should have been dealt pocket Aces over this stretch. I have gotten them 41 times.

At first glance this seems like an outlier event. After all, if we assume (for simplicity) the aces to be 80% heads-up favorite preflop, then the probability of having them cracked at least once in 41 hands is 99.99%. But after a little thought, it becomes apparent that this run, while freakish, is not as improbable as originally stated. Do you see why?