Parents of the Year

Walking the floor

As a much needed form of regular exercise, I will often spend 1 or 2 hours pacing up and down the floor of a large strip casino. This is usually done between the hours of 7 and 9am, 6 days a week with a rotating list of 10 different casinos. Of course it's not really about the exercise, but rather the opportunity to find lost coins, chips and any other valuables dropped by the previous night's revellers. Here is a sampling of this week's booty:

Aces holding up

Hoyazo has had an incredible run with pocket aces, having them hold up 41 times in succession.

Btw the actual best part about my play on Sunday was the 4-for-4 I went with pocket Aces. This brings my total since I started using pokertracker to 41 wins in 41 times dealt pocket Aces. Average pot size is still over $85 won per time dealt the best starting hand in holdem. And keep in mind, this is over 13,500 hands, meaning that I should have been dealt pocket Aces my 1/221 of the time, representing 61 times I should have been dealt pocket Aces over this stretch. I have gotten them 41 times.

At first glance this seems like an outlier event. After all, if we assume (for simplicity) the aces to be 80% heads-up favorite preflop, then the probability of having them cracked at least once in 41 hands is 99.99%. But after a little thought, it becomes apparent that this run, while freakish, is not as improbable as originally stated. Do you see why?

If it's not one thing, it's another

I've been scrambling to scrape up the $29 to renew my poetic license, which expires at the end of the month.

The lure of the big catch

I have all but abandoned MTT's, both live and online. A brand new copy of Harrington on Hold'em Vol II has been lying unread in my shopping cart for over a year. I got through Vol I fairly briskly, but that's because of its relevance to cash games. Nevertheless, the blogosphere is a supprepository of valuable information for those wishing to hone their MTT skills.

Hoy, a successful though somewhat laconic tournament player, wrote a fine post on MTT resteals. Blinders then countered with an equally fine rejoinder. As a non-interested party, I found the whole thing fascinating. Any more exposure and I may be tempted to brush the dust off HOH Vol II.

I do, however, have a minor philosophical nit to pick with one of Blinders' assumptions:

I assume that the stealer's range is ahead of the restealer's range. You don't resteal with a big hand, that would be a reraise value bet, and not a "resteal". So we can eliminate all of the big hands from the restealer, but none of the big hands from the stealer, as he could legitimately have a big hand. The stealer here has at least a top 50% of hands range.

If we can "eliminate all of the big hands from the restealer" (value bet argument), then by the same logic we should be able to eliminate all the big hands from the stealer, as this wouldn't be a steal. I therefore fail to see why "the stealer's range is ahead of the restealer's range", given that they are both really "stealing".

WSOP coverage

I'm about 10 miles away from all the action at the Rio and it's 1:30am. The final table of the WSOP Main Event is now down to 3 players.

The great team at pokernews.com is keeping me abreast of the situation. I can't thank them enough.

The Diagnosis?

Existential musings

I enjoy reading the existential musings of Short-Stacked Shamus, replete with interesting material and quality writing which I highly recommend. In a recent post, Shamus discusses the new blind structure for the 2007 Main Event:

However, once WSOP officials released the structure sheets for the events, everyone learned that along with doubling the starting stacks, the blinds would start out doubled as well, rendering the change less meaningful. I don't say "meaningless" because having twice the chips does make a difference, even if the blinds have been doubled, because we are talking about a no limit tournament. For the limit tournaments, doubling the starting stacks and blinds/betting limits makes no difference whatsoever. But when we're talking NL, having twice the stack there in Level 1 will most certainly influence how (some) players will approach the start of the tournament.

What puzzles me is why Shamus differentiates between limit and no-limit. I can't see why this new structure would influence the approach of some players at the start of the tournament.

Sunday $500K

This morning I decided to use up 5,000 Full Tilt Points by playing in a SNG where the winner gets an entry into Sunday's $500K. As luck would have it, I took it down and now face the prospect of playing in my first "big" online MTT.

ROI

lightning36 asks :

I saw your Waffles vs Chad ROI comment. Is there an explanation for the math that even a former social sciences major can understand??

We multiply each month's (1+ROI) as seen below. As a point of reference, I experienced my last positive ROI month in March, 2004 (8.35%).

The Myth of the Huge Field - Part II

Thanks to TripJax for his cogent comments. The next step is to set up a model and run some simulations, so that we can dispel this myth forever. The model is simplistic and does not take into account increasing blind structures, chip stacks or any other idiosyncrasies of a tournament. Nevertheless, I believe the results are just as valid.

I used the following assumptions :

1. For each hand on each table there is a 0.001 probability that one player will be eliminated.

2. There are 10 players per table and the tables are kept as equal as possible.

3. Play is hand for hand.

4. As per WSOP practice, 10% of the field gets paid.

5. Play is halted when the bubble is eliminated.

The results are that the expected number of hands played till the bubble is eliminated is independent of the size of the field. So cashing in a WSOP event is just as impressive if the field is 800 or 8,000. As for winning the bracelet, now that's a different story.

The Myth of the Huge Field - Part I

In a recent article in Card Player, we read about an online player who finished 812th (out of a field of 8773) in the 2006 WSOP main event, or just in the money, for a prize of $15k.

Last year he plowed through nearly 8,000 players and cashed for a respectable $15,000 while taking his first shot at the coveted world championship crown.

Now I'm sure that there's no better feeling than making the money in a WSOP event. But what's this about "plowing through nearly 8,000 players"? Did he really plow through 8,000 players? Is there any significant difference between finishing 812th out of a field of 8,773 or 406th out of 4,386 players? Or 203rd out of 2,193 for that matter? How does the increasing field size translate into actual extra play?

Note that I'm talking about finishing just in the money, not making the final table.

Worst beat ever

It was the worst bad beat I have ever witnessed. Doris McFuddle, a 26-year-old lab assistant from Wichita, Kansas, busted out of the WSOP Ladies' Event when her quad queens were taken down by a royal flush. A distraught McFuddle is pictured below as she scurries from the Rio in tears.

Results not good

May started off with a modicum of promise and it looked like the long awaited breakthrough that my backers were praying for would eventuate. Alas, it was not to be. Variance kicked me in the junk once again. I really feel despondent, but my backers still have confidence in my weak tight trapping style. Can things get any worse?

5 cases when it's OK to use the "f" word

For a good cause

PokerStars is running the Ocean's Thirteen Darfur Charity Tournament this Sunday afternoon at 3:30pm ET.

Date: May 27th 2007, 15:30 ET
Buy-in: $10 plus rebuys.
Prizes: Top 4 receive tickets to June 5th premiere in Los Angeles plus 2 nights hotel and $2k for travel/spending. Top 18 receive autographed copy of "Oceans 13" DVD. Total prize pool will go to charity. PokerStars will match the donation.

The tournament is open to all players. Good luck!

Mother of all heaters

Saw this on FTP last night. I have no idea how long it took Lommasasa to win his 8 buy-ins, but it is an impressive feat nevertheless.

Poker Hall of Shame II

If you ever happen to run into Gudaehan, know that you are facing one of the biggest scumbags to ever sit at a table.

A pox on you

Matt Q has tagged me with this "Seven Random Things" meme. While I view this as a total disregard for my privacy, I will not risk possible ostracism by my fellow bloggers and proffer the following snippets :

1. fuel55 raves on and on about presto being gold. Wait till he turns presto like I did this year.

2. I haven't drunk any alcohol since 1987. I still have pangs of guilt that I declined Al's generous offer of a Soco shot at the 2005 WPBT in Vegas without explaining why.

3. Of all instruments, I learned to play the piano accordion as a kid. I would've preferred the guitar.

4. I can juggle 3 balls with one hand in my pocket. I can also juggle 3 balls with no hands in my pocket.

5. My favorite sport is soccer. A close second is Aussie rules football.

6. I have lived on 4 continents and speak 4 languages.

7. I have memorized the first 200 digits of Pi and can recite them both forwards and backwards. Also, my good memory is only surpassed by my fertile imagination.

And if you think I have the temerity to tag anyone, think again.

Set over set

In the March 28 issue of Card Player, Phil Hellmuth discusses a hand featuring set over set. In a sidebar entitled Poker Odds, presumably written by CP staff, the following is stated:

In a 10-handed game in which two players have been dealt pocket pairs, the chance of both players flopping sets is less than 0.1 percent.

I have no desire in calculating this probability and will accept their 0.1 percent. What I do find particularly funny is the redundant pre-condition of "in a 10-handed game". It doesn't matter if it's 10-handed, 5-handed or heads-up; if two players have been dealt pocket pairs, the chance of both players flopping sets is the same.

Disappointing April

After an encouraging start which had me positive for the first 3 days, I couldn't fend off a brutal onslaught of bad beats and second best hands. Despite several attempts at mounting a comeback, I finally succumbed to the fickle whims of variance, and my backers took another severe hit.

Who's the bigger donk?

I needn't remind anyone about the dangers of a paired board. But what can prove deceptively perilous is when the river card pairs the turn card. Following is a hand in which I played worse than the donkey I was up against.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2177715576: Table Antigua (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: jaballthehut2 ($49.75)
Seat 2: HomelessShelter ($97.40)
Seat 4: beavrliquor ($76.50)
Seat 5: k4750 ($19.45)
Seat 6: ALP-TOR ($73.65)
k4750 posts the small blind of $0.25
ALP-TOR posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HomelessShelter [3c Kc]
jaballthehut2 calls $0.50
HomelessShelter calls $0.50
beavrliquor calls $0.50
k4750 folds
ALP-TOR checks
*** FLOP *** [3h Ks 9d]
ALP-TOR checks
jaballthehut2 bets $2.25
HomelessShelter calls $2.25
beavrliquor has 15 seconds left to act
beavrliquor folds
ALP-TOR folds
*** TURN *** [3h Ks 9d] [5d]
jaballthehut2 bets $6.75
HomelessShelter calls $6.75
*** RIVER *** [3h Ks 9d 5d] [5h]
jaballthehut2 bets $20.25
HomelessShelter calls $20.25
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jaballthehut2 shows [Kd Jc] (two pair, Kings and Fives)
HomelessShelter mucks
jaballthehut2 wins the pot ($57.75) with two pair, Kings and Fives
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $60.75 | Rake $3
Board: [3h Ks 9d 5d 5h]
Seat 1: jaballthehut2 showed [Kd Jc] and won ($57.75) with two pair, Kings and Fives
Seat 2: HomelessShelter mucked [3c Kc] - two pair, Kings and Fives

There was no point in calling the $20 river bet, since I had to give him credit for at least a king. Once the 2 fives popped up and my 2 pair were counterfeited, there was a good chance his higher kicker would come into play. As for the flop and turn betting, I believe that he thought he had the best hand throughout and I wouldn't have been able to raise him out of the hand. I still should have raised though.

My, my, you bloggers have been busy

I log into Bloglines and find I have 32,994 unread posts. I check my pulse and pinch myself. What year is it? What if each post is of Hoyazian proportions? Oh well, let's get it over with - should only take a couple of days...... Hello, what's this?

Forewarned is forearmed

The importance of making player notes cannot be overemphasized. Anything that can help me is annotated for future reference. I am meticulous and thorough, trying to encapsulate every facet of my opponent's game in a summary that will be of invaluable assistance when we next meet.

Apparel maketh the man

It looks like I'm finally getting a wardrobe together. Following on from my recent jersey win, I had the good fortune yesterday of taking down Maudie's dorky prize of a matching hat and scarf. All I need now is a decent pair of trousers and I'll be good to go for live games.

KK quandary revisited

In a recent article in Card Player magazine, noted poker authority Bob Ciaffone writes about adjustments for playing deep-stack no-limit hold'em. Especially interesting is the following excerpt:

Do not be overconfident in building or playing second-best hands. I suggest that you be particularly leery when considering whether or not to play a suited king. The second nuts is a very expensive holding when deep in chips. You will win quite a few pots with it, but when the big dough is put into the pot with strong betting, it is seldom the third nuts that is in your opponent's hand. Of course, two kings is a far better hand than a suited king, but the same type of thinking should be applied. I have seen good players tell you in print that you should be willing to play two kings for all of your money, and if you run into two aces, you were just unlucky. I believe that to be good advice under normal circumstances; that is, when you have 100 times the big blind, or less, in your stack. For at least 200 times the big blind, the only preflop through-ticket for your entire stack is pocket aces. If you're not looking at 'em preflop, you soon will be at the end of the hand.

I could not agree more. In fact, this validates my contention in the KK Quandary, where I was in the minority.

Age of Consent

Come celebrate katitude's birthday in a donkament.

Tournament #15387473, Katitude's Poker Night
Password: martini
Date: Friday, March 30
Where: Full Tilt Poker
Time: 9:00 EST
Buyin: $10+ $1
Game: NLHE

A new milestone

Not since July 1968, when Iron Butterfly released the monumental LP, In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida, featuring the 17 minute side-long track, has the entire music industry been so shaken up. I am referring to none other than this year's American Idol star, Sanjaya Malakar, whose powerhouse voice and raw talent catapults him into another league. Kudos to change100 who was quick to unearth his potential and from the outset predicted great things for him.

Feeling creative?

Then go to Mr. Picassohead and emulate the great master. Here's my pathetic attempt:

Cash is king but clothing is fine

I have yet to make the final table of any large online MTT. That is until yesterday.


I get a personalized Full Tilt Poker jersey for my efforts.

DQB permutated

Capitalization is the difference between "I had to help my uncle Jack off a horse.." and "I had to help my uncle jack off a horse.."

Thank Waffles for killing workplace productivity.

@#!% Chat

There's nothing like a well-timed "lol" in the chat box, from a donkey who has just sucked out on you, to put even the most cool and composed player on tilt. I therefore have a policy of turning off all player and observer chat during any game I am involved in. Obviously I make an exception for the blogger tournaments where the chat is 80% of the fun.

On a related note, cracknaces has had his FTP chat privileges revoked for 3 months. I laughed to tears when I read about it, and to him I can unequivocally say, "You're @#!%ing better off without it."

Locate the Lemur II

Go ahead and make the effort to look for these assclowns. Your bankroll will thank you for it.

marco58
TY WEBB 5150
Ranbar007
Steelknght
moon5302

Locate the Lemur

It's comforting to know that there are complete morons playing online. Whenever I witness a donkey play, whether I'm in the hand or not, I make a note of the player's name, both online (player notes) and on paper. At the beginning of each session, I use the Find a Player feature to see if I can locate any of these jackasses, the aim being to get on a table with one (or more) of them. This is table selection exemplified and is very positive EV.

Following is the short list of retards that were added to my compendium this afternoon:

Smitty300
wisker
D-ROBB
LuNAtiC9567
_BuyIt_

The Longest Bubble

I am playing in Full Tilt's $69+$6 $22K NLHE tournament. There are 446 entrants of whom 55 now remain.

It is 21:34 ET, the blinds are 400/800 with a 100 ante. I have T32,000 and am in 20th place. Top 45 get paid.

I am determined to make the money and fold virtually every hand. I even fold 99 UTG, not wanting a possible tangle with the aggressive and larger stacked big blind. I watch how I slowly drop to 21st, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th place.

Exactly 42 hands elapse.

It is 22:05 ET, the blinds are 800/1600 with a 200 ante. I have T15,800 and am in 33rd place, with 46 players remaining. All tables are now playing hand for hand. It is folded around to me in the small blind where I pick up AKo. The big blind has T50,000. I fold.

The bubble bursts and shortly thereafter I go out in 34th place, which pays $123.09. First pays $7,693.50.

What is the moral of this story?

I love math

Taken from actual exams :

Who is this guy?

And what did he do to warrant a personalized avatar? Ran into the bugger in a $10+$1 NLHE MTT.

nh?!

Tried getting into the first FTOPS event by playing in a $50+$5 satellite. I was doing OK with T2000 and blinds at 60/120, when I picked up AA in the small blind. There were 3 limpers so I went all-in. Big blind, who has me covered, calls and everyone else folds. He has KK and of course the board comes 228KK (may the designers of the RNG get avian flu).



Now as if this wasn't enough, stoffer1, whose avatar should be a steaming turd and who wasn't even involved in the hand, types "nh" into the chat box. What is nice about this hand? It is a suckout and his comment shows the immaturity that can only be expected of the typical retarded cretin one finds in these online events. I didn't bother venting my feelings in the chat box. stoffer1 finished in 137th place, with only 92 qualifying for a seat. That was enough for me. And if perchance stoffer1 should take down a major tourney sometime in the future, I leave this post, together with the following meta tags, as posterity for those doing any online searching.

stoffer1 stoffer asswipe poker

I feel better already.

Check or bet?

Dems Quads Beetches!!!

This donktard lost his stack when he kept betting into me with nothing. He went all-in on the river.

Tell us what you really think

Creeping up

I finished 4th in tonight's Mookie and it's only a matter of time before I take down this prestigious title. As usual, a good time was had by all.

What's in a Name?

I like this player's screen name. More good ones here.

Another cash in the Riverchasers

After bombing out in this week's Mookie, I managed to finish 5th in last night's Riverchasers Event #2, hosted by the Reverend Al. I started off inauspiciously and was down to T690 (and last position) very early on. I fought back, building my stack up to a respectable level. The pivotal hand for me was the following:

Full Tilt Poker Game #1673618973: Riverchasers Tour Event #2 (11176593), Table 8 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:13:28 ET - 2007/01/25 (partial)
Seat 1: dnasty13 (1,515)
Seat 2: patryn21 (4,150)
Seat 3: ScottMc (1,490)
Seat 4: -o-LuckTruck-o- (3,215)
Seat 5: noollab (580)
Seat 6: pebble78 (3,216)
Seat 7: MrSubliminal (3,330)
Seat 8: MoonShadow58 (950)
Seat 9: cycleseller (2,571)
pebble78 posts the small blind of 60
MrSubliminal posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSubliminal [As Kh]
MoonShadow58 folds
cycleseller folds
dnasty13 folds
patryn21 raises to 350
ScottMc folds
-o-LuckTruck-o- folds
noollab folds
pebble78 folds
MrSubliminal calls 230
*** FLOP *** [Ad 7c 7h]
MrSubliminal checks
patryn21 bets 300
MrSubliminal raises to 1,200
patryn21 has 15 seconds left to act
patryn21 raises to 3,800, and is all in
MrSubliminal calls 1,780, and is all in
patryn21 shows [7s 9s]
MrSubliminal shows [As Kh]
Uncalled bet of 820 returned to patryn21
*** TURN *** [Ad 7c 7h] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [Ad 7c 7h Qh] [Ac]
patryn21 shows a full house, Sevens full of Aces
MrSubliminal shows a full house, Aces full of Sevens
MrSubliminal wins the pot (6,720) with a full house, Aces full of Sevens




After the flop, I was a 91% dog and was very lucky not to have been eliminated there and then. Of course I could not put him on a 7 and would play the hand the same way tomorrow. That's poker.

Wish me luck

I start work on Monday as a human directional.

Poker Source Online

If you play a decent amount of poker (and since you are reading a poker blog, you probably do), you know that you pay the poker room to play in the form of rake. There is nothing wrong with that; the poker rooms have to make money to stay in operation. But if you could play at a discount, you certainly would, wouldn’t you?

That is where Poker Source Online comes in. Poker Source Online, also known in the online poker community as “PSO,” has partnered with four of the top online poker rooms to offer rakeback to new customers. Anyone who has never had an account at Sun Poker, Full Tilt Poker, Ultimate Bet, or Absolute Poker can have anywhere from 27% to 32% of their rake returned to them, depending on the poker room.

Sure, some rakeback providers work with more rooms than PSO does, but PSO limits the rooms it deals with in order to ensure the highest quality customer service, both from the room and from PSO. If you ever have a question about your rakeback, PSO will be there to help you. Some of the poker room representatives even stop by PSO’s message forum to assist from time to time.

Three of the rooms deposit the rakeback directly into your poker account as cash. There is no need to request a payout from PSO to get your money. One room, Ultimate Bet, pays out in PSO “Points,” which can be accumulated and spent in PSO’s online store. There, you can purchase all sorts of poker goodies, books, DVD’s, electronics, and gift cards (some gift cards are even for poker rooms, so they are as good as cash).

So, if you want to essentially get paid to play poker, it only makes sense to sign up for rakeback at Poker Source Online. You are going to play poker anyway, so reward yourself for it! Visit http://www.pokersourceonline.com for more details.

Not about Neteller

I made the money in last night's Mookie, finishing 7th.



Bubble play was tight and lucko21 used this to his advantage by relentlessly attacking the blinds. His 94 offsuit was too much for Dachrsty's AK, the latter going out in 8th place. I was involved in that hand (JJ) but made a hasty exit when my post-flop feeler bet was raised by lucko. Had it not been bubble time, I would have pushed and also been eliminated. On second thoughts, I would have pushed pre-flop, almost certainly getting lucko out of the hand. When it comes to lucko, I use the "almost" qualifier.



Congrats to wwonka69 for winning the event.

MTT's are fun

It is an immutable fact of tournament life that eventually either you will suck out on someone or they will suck out on you. In sharp contrast to what you will read elsewhere, I present an example of the former. This was an all-in hand and I went on to finish in the money.



Following is another all-in hand and an example of nearly being sucked out on. Preflop I am an 82.3% favorite. The flop gives my opponent 93 outs and from here it is virtually a coin toss (51.5% in my favor). Not surprisingly, my sphincter contracted as the turn and river cards fell (see last visual).

Great Success!!

After thoroughly enjoying myself in The Mookie, I decided to try Al's Riverchasers event. I finished 6th out of 119. May be time to give MTT's another shot?

Blogger vs. Blogger

From the very outset, I have made it a policy of not playing poker online with my fellow bloggers. I make exceptions for special tournaments and have been known to sit in on the odd cash game when I recognize some names. I know I forego much camaraderie and good fun but if I cannot play my natural game then I feel it best not to play at all. When I sit down at a table, I want to win every player's buy-in. I expect everyone to rebuy after they have lost their stack to me, and then my goal is to win that new stack. Rinse and repeat till the player is broke. And that is why I never play poker with friends.

Sometimes the blogger camaraderie is challenged by the inevitable clashes of ego that poker is known to elicit. A recent example is SirFWalgman calling Weak Player a "fucking tool" over a particular hand in a $1-$2 NLHE cash game. Of course, Waffles apologized in the very next post. There have been other uncharacteristic "flareups" in the past, with Mattazuma vs. Hoyazo just one example coming to mind.

Perhaps the only cash game that I've played with any bloggers during the last 24 months occurred a few weeks ago when I spotted Joe Speaker and April in a NLHE game on FTP. I know I folded some reasonably good hands pre-flop when either Joe or April raised; hands that I certainly would have played against anyone else. We talked a bit, laughed some and then bade each other good night.

Thank you!

As 2006 draws to a close, I wish to thank my loyal readership for gracing me with your presence. Hopefully 2007 will be a healthy and prosperous year for you all.

To break the monotony of soup kitchen fare, I have been known to lash out with the occasional binge at McDonald's or even Applebee's. I wish to thank my site's sponsors for making this possible.

Full Tilt Poker - For the best online poker experience

Poker Source Online - Play online poker and earn free poker gifts

Mac Online Poker - The comprehensive site for online poker for Macs

Finally

As evidence of my loyalty to the blogging community, I attach a .jpg wherein the hammer takes down a $11 pot, of which $7 was my final uncalled bet. I'm glad that's out of the way, as it's cost me $167 in failed attempts.

  

Just like a blind date

I am 25 years old again and have been set up with a blind date. She sounds real nice on the phone. The day has finally arrived. I knock on her door and am greeted by one ugly duckling.

Poker equivalent :

WPBT 2006

Thanks to April for organizing the WPBT 2006 Winter Classic at Caesars. It was great meeting up with all the bloggers, too many to enumerate here. I had the pleasure of playing with Bobby Bracelet, Linda, Lou Krieger, Dan, Mattazuma, Jen, Joe Speaker, Pablo, Drizz and many others who will forgive me for not being able to remember them. Gary eliminated me when my QQ ran into his KK.

Congratulations to -EV for winning the event.

2006 on track for consistent year

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, 2006 looks like yet another consistent year for my poker earnings. My current losses amount to $15,571, so I should have little difficulty breaking through the $16,000 barrier by year's end.

  

Pitter Patter

Iggy, a well-known acolyte and dwarf, has moved shop over to Linda. Small step for Iggy, giant leap for mankind.

More dealerese

"Traddoo," announces the same young Asian dealer at the MGM.

"Rive traddoo."

Translation : Apparently someone has posted a live straddle.

Church and State

"Thanks for praying." - Young Asian dealer at MGM Grand.

Concepts in No Limit

Concept No. 11: A big bet is the most relevant and accurate information available.

Concept No. 50: If someone bets the flop and gets two or more calls, anyone who bets a significant amount on the turn should get respect.

From No Limit Hold'em Theory and Practice by Sklansky and Miller

MGM Grand $1-$2 NL. I have about $300 in front of me and open limp from UTG with 99. Five callers comprising EP, MP, button, SB and BB. The flop is

K 9 6 rainbow

SB bets $10, BB folds. I don't find this flop particularly threatening, so I smooth call my set. EP calls, MP goes all-in for $13, and button, SB, myself and EP are the only callers. However, before I call, I make the cardinal error of asking whether I can raise. I know the rule and the answer, of course, is that since the all-in was less than one and a half times the original bet, it cannot be raised. My inattention would cost me dearly.

Turn : 5

SB checks, I check, EP and MP check, and button after a brief pause goes all-in. He has me covered and I am perplexed by the disproportionate size of the bet. I haven't seen this player before and have no read on him. SB instafolds and I cannot help but think that if not for my stupid raise question, I would be facing a much smaller and easily callable bet. Still, I call almost instantaneously, not even thinking about his hand. EP and MP fold.

River : A

He turns over 87o for the nut straight. I reach for my wallet and rebuy in disgust, lessons learned.

Poker Hall of Shame

As a public service, I list some Las Vegas poker room staff that you should try to avoid. They are guilty of being either inept, stupid or spineless, or a combination thereof.

Tiffany (dealer, Bellagio)
Andrew (floor person, Bellagio)
Charlie (brush, Bellagio)
Bryan (dealer, Green Valley Ranch)
Terry (dealer, Venetian)

More to come.

Bob Lassiter RIP

Bob Lassiter passed away at 9:15am on Friday, October 13, 2006.

My deepest condolences to Mary.

Goodbye tampa, my good close personal friend.

Showing Your Hand

In a recent article in Card Player magazine, Barry Tanenbaum gives compelling reasons why you should show your hand :

• You might win.
• You might have misread your hand.
• You may get to see your opponent's hand.
• It speeds up the game.
• It's OK if people see your hand.

Had I read the article a few weeks earlier, it would have saved me a lot of anguish and a couple of hundred dollars to boot.

Where In The World?

Card Player magazine has a regular feature called Where In The World?, whereby readers are invited to send in photos of themselves in exotic settings, with an issue of the magazine prominent in the photo.

I now provide my reading public with a sneak preview of this snapshot taken during my afternoon siesta, which I recently submitted and am sure will be published in the not too distant future. Needless to say, the locale is Vegas, baby, Vegas!

September 11

The morning of September 11 2001 found me in my Queens, NY apartment, 8 miles from the WTC. I was at my desk watching CNBC when the regular broadcasting was interrupted. I could see the smoke from my rooftop.

The last time I had been to the WTC was a few months earlier, when I spent a couple of days visiting a trading firm on the 55th floor of one of the towers. A few weeks prior to that, I had also passed through the building twice a day for a full year, having taken the E train to and from Wall Street.

Things won't ever be the same again.

Phil Gordon in the 9 seat

I wandered into the MGM Grand poker room late Friday afternoon and put myself on the list for $1-$2 NL. They eventually opened a new table and I found myself sitting 2 seats to the right of Phil Gordon. He was filling in some time before a James Brown concert and, true to form, kept the table entertained. When I told him I grew up in Melbourne, Australia, he proclaimed it to be his favorite city in the world, this after spending 4 years travelling in 55 different countries. Phil is a nice guy with good taste.

Angle shooting at Green Valley Ranch?

$1-$2 NL at Green Valley Ranch, Sunday 5am. I have AsAc, there are 2 others in the hand and the pot is $200.

The board is J 5 9 K 9 with no possible flush. At showdown, one player declares "jacks and fives" and shows J5. The dealer (Bryan) pushes the J and 5 forward and announces "jacks and fives". For some reason (length of session, lateness of hour, general weariness) I believe I am beaten and muck my hand face down. Another player then corrects the dealer, pointing out that the winning hand should be jacks and nines. I suddenly realize my mistake and express my displeasure to the dealer for misreading the hand, but of course it is too late. I am sure that had the dealer pushed the jack and 2 nines forward, I would have been alerted to my 2 pair. From the corner of my eye, I discern that the floor (Bruce) prefers to keep a neutral distance.

This is the price one pays for marathon sessions and I only have myself to blame. Still, I know for a fact that Bryan and the player involved are friends and cannot put out of my mind that the player may have suspected an overpair and tried an angle with his declaration, with Bryan adding the final collaborative touch. Or maybe I'm a tad paranoid?

I will be more wary in the future and avoid playing when tired. As for the $200, I'll slowly get it back by regretfully withholding future tips to the mostly professional and friendly GVR poker dealers. Shouldn't take too long.

Schadenfreude? Hardly!

High Stakes Poker on GSN continues to dominate as the leading poker television show, leaving the others way behind. The only complaint I have is that the ratio of actual content to commercial time is about 50:50. Truth be told, I'd watch it if it were 30:70.

In a recent episode, Phil Hellmuth loses his stack to Barry Greenstein after the latter flops a set of deuces. The resulting tirade by Phil, together with commentary by hosts Gabe Kaplan and AJ Benza, provide for great comic relief.

Phil : He had a fucking set. I had him on his fucking small pair. I fucking quit.

Gabe : Phil in a reflective mood here.

AJ : Barry rakes in 150 grand while Phil busts out for the second time.

Phil : I should've fucking quit.

Gabe : More self-examination.

Running Bad - Part II

Using the Sklansky-Chubukov rankings as a reference, an analysis of my hand history shows that my dry patch wasn't that dry after all. In fact it wasn't even a significant deviation from "normalcy". This can partly be explained by the relatively high weighting given to supposedly crappy hands like K7o which, somewhat counterintuitively, ranks higher than the more playable T9s and JTo.

I can only shudder to think what really running bad feels like. But thanks all the same to Huge Junk, undream2 and Drizztdj for the sympathy.

Running Bad - Part I

I had the good fortune of receiving a $35 bonus from an online poker site which I recently played off at a $0.25-$0.50 NL table. Talk about being card dead, I have yet to experience such a dry run of cards in 4 hours of online play. I have the history file and will conduct a more rigorous study of the starting hands with a view to quantifying the extent of my misfortune. Needless to say, this should be viewed as an exercise in reinforcing the statistical nature of the game and nothing more.

A sample of the hands :

Qs Jc
9c Qh
4h Qs
2d 5d
9h Th
7s Qd
Jh Ts
5s Qh
Qc Jh
3s 2c
Qc Jc
5d 8s
Ah 7h
7s 8h
9h 7c
5c 7c
4d 8h
2s Qs
8s 4h
9s 6d
6c 6s
2s 2h
Kc Qh
Kh 7c
5c 8h
9s 8h
4c 3d
Qs 3s
5h 2c
9h Tc
8d Ah
Jh 6d
Kc 9s
3h Ks
4h 6c
9c 8c
Ks 3h
9d Ac
8h Ah
5s Kd
7h 2d
Ad 8s
Jh Qd
8h 5c
Td 3d
3d 6s
9d Ad
Qs 3s
7s 5c
6d 3s
4h As
7h As
9d 6c
9c Jd
Ts 6d
4c 5s
7c Qd
9c As
6c Qh
Kh 4d
3h 2d
Qc Ac
7d Kd
2c Qs
8d 8h
Td Jh
4h Th
9c 4d
4c 6h
4s 2s
7s Qc
Jd 9h
Ac 2c
9c Jc
7d As
2h Qc
9s Js
Ts 8h
4c 6s
7h 6h
Qs 3d
7h Ac
3h 4h
5s Ad
4s Jc
2h Js
6d 2d
9c Jd
5c Kc
3d Ad
Qd Kc
6c 5h
4c 2h
3c 6c
4h 6c
Ts Qc
3s As
5h As
6h 5d
Qd Ts
Jh 6d
7c Td
6c 8c
Jc 2h
Qs 3s
Qd 2h
Jd Kd
9h 5c
Jc Kc
9c 6c
Kh 7d
8c Td
6d 2c

Outclassed at the WPBT

From the moment I sat down, I knew I was dead money and even proclaimed such in a firm but subdued tone. I couldn't have drawn a tougher table :

(1) Stephan
(2) Me
(3) Blinders
(4) Jen Leo and then Mrs Head and then Dawn
(5) Empty seat and then Michael Craig
(6) Chad and then April
(7) Hoyazo
(8) F-Train
(9) Hoff
(10) Empty seat and then Human Head

I intentionally deferred my reading of Harrington on Hold'em, brand new copies of which I still have lying in my shopping cart, in lieu of a painstakingly slow study of Sklansky and Miller's new no-limit book. I have also reverted back to live NL cash games so my tournament play is very rusty. I believe I finished around 50th out of 113, much higher than I expected or deserved. Dawn cracked my A4 offsuit with her AK and received a 10-piece bed-set as my bounty.

Thanks to April for organizing everything, all those that helped her, all the speakers that volunteered their time, Caesar's for the wonderful hosting, InterPoker and Full Tilt for the extras and goodies, and finally all the remarkable bloggers that made this such an unforgettable experience.

And of course congratulations to F-Train for taking it down. Not surprising in the least.

Pauly's WSOP Coverage

Just a sample of what's waiting for you at Tao of Poker. To quote Mike Sexton, "Folks, it doesn't get any better than this!"

I'm in Las Vegas for a second year in a row covering the biggest event ever in the history of poker. I want to be at the Rio everyday and tell you what I see, hear, and smell. I'm not going to sugar-coat the poker coverage and tell you how awesome it is to be at the WSOP. I'm not going to write 2,500 words on how cool it is to see Gus Hansen and Jen Harman and Annie Duke play poker. They are degenerate gamblers just like you and me. They happen to be better at it than us but that doesn't make them rockstars and Gods among peasants.

Poker is a dark and ugly entity. The media has created an aura of nebulous sanctimony and the masses are flocking to it like it's the cure for the void that they have in their sad and empty lives. I should know. I fell for it too. For most of my life I was empty and sad. Poker was the light at the end of the tunnel. I bought the bullshit like everyone else. But unlike you, I got to see behind the scenes of the poker world for the last year. I peeked behind the curtain and saw the great and powerful Oz. And he's not great, nor powerful.

Poker is an old dirty whore. Poker is a $10 crack rock. Poker is an illusion and a momentary distraction from the harsh world that we live in.

Too much parry, not enough thrust

Aikido is a form of martial art that redirects the energy of the opponent to ward off an attack, rather than blocking it. It is the approach I adopt in no limit cash games and results in trapping aggressive opponents. While this style works for me, I believe I am lying in wait too much and not going on the offensive enough.

If I could comfortably switch back and forth between these 2 modes during a session, I believe my game would be elevated to an even higher level of mediocrity.

Gambler's Book Shop

Whenever the need arises, it gives me great pleasure to go downtown and spend some time browsing at the Gambler's Book Shop. Located in a decrepit area of downtown frequented by derelicts not unlike myself, the store is a cornucopia of books, magazines, CD's and DVD's on every conceivable gambling subject.

Acquiring a copy of the much heralded and just published "No Limit Hold'em Theory and Practice" by David Sklansky and Ed Miller was the purpose of my visit.

South Coast

Last weekend I finally visited the South Coast poker room. It is a typical Las Vegas low-limit room with a mix of locals and tourists. I played 2 sessions of $1-$2 NL and was pleased with both the results and my play.

I may put low buy-in MTT's on temporary hold while I attempt to capitalize on my recent good run in cash games.

Freeroll

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!
This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive to Bloggers.
Registration code: 7330476

From tiger to pussycat

It's $1-$2 NL, I'm in the big blind with JJ, LAG in mid-position raises to $10, all fold to me and I call. I have about $100 and he has me covered.

The flop is

8 5 3 rainbow

I bet $10, LAG calls. From his previous betting behavior, I put him on AK or similar, but not an overpair.

Turn : T

I bet $20, he calls. I'm not so sure about his AK anymore.

River : 7

I push, he calls and takes down the pot with AA.

A few hands later I look down to see QQ in early position. I limp, it's raised to $10 by the button and I'm the only caller.

The flop is

6 4 2

I check, button bets $10 and I fold. I'm not risking my stack on third best overpair.

Tournaments

I'm enjoying moderate success in the low buy-in online MTT's. I have often wondered what live tournament players do in between tournaments - that is, those that don't play cash games. At least online, there is non-stop action.

My renewed interest in MTT's may result in participation in some online WSOP satellites over the next few weeks. I've lived in Vegas for over 3 years now, and have not yet personally witnessed a WSOP event, let alone played in one. I plan on allocating no more than $200 toward the satellites, so the chances of me finally stepping foot in the Rio are very slim indeed.

Cracked Aces

This beautiful graphic comes from here.

The Cost of Doing Business

The cost of sitting at a $1-$2 NL table in a Strip casino is about $10 per hour. This includes the rake, tips to dealers and cocktail waitresses and assumes that I am being dealt average cards and am playing against average players. The figure stays about the same for $2-$5 NL, so it is more cost efficient to play at that level (bankroll permitting) if one measures success in terms of big blinds per hour.

Should I wish to, I could lower my hourly nut by playing tournaments or by playing online.

Classic misplay?

The Station casinos are rewarding 50 hours of play in April and May with a $200,000 freeroll tournament. In a bid to chalk up a few hours, I found myself sitting at a $1-$2 NL table at the Green Valley Ranch. Most of the players were locals with an even balance between loose aggressives and tight passives.

With about $130 in front of me, I open limp from early position with 99. There are 5 callers including the button and the blinds. The flop comes

Q T 9 with 2 hearts

I check, player to my left bets $10, next player folds, button raises to $25 and the blinds fold. I think there's at least a 50% chance the button has me beat and I put the initial bettor on a flush draw.

I push (both my opponents have me covered), the initial bettor folds and the button calls after about 10 seconds of deliberation. He shows the nuts (KJo) and takes down the pot when I fail to improve.

Should I just have called the button's raise instead of pushing? An examination of my pot equity reveals an interesting phenomenom. If it is 2-handed between the button and myself and we assume he has the straight, my pot equity is 35%. If it is 3-handed and we assume the initial bettor is on a flush draw, my pot equity not only doesn't decrease, it actually increases to 35.5%, with the button giving up 26% equity to the flush draw. This apparent paradox is explained by Morton's Theorem. I have yet to factor in other variables such as fold equity and the probability that the button actually does have the straight.

The aim here is to maximize my winnings and I'm not so sure I did.

Another try at MTT's?

I have concentrated on live no limit cash games to date. After an interesting conversation with CJ while he was in Vegas, I have decided to look into re-entering the tournament scene. Initially it will be low buy-in stuff and will be in addition to the NL cash games.

As usual, I am enjoying great success when pitted against other opponents. However, this is all pretty much negated by my inability to conquer myself.

8 minus 4

I was busy folding at a $1-$2 NL table at the Aladdin yesterday afternoon when from the corner of my eye I spotted none other than CJ signing up for a tournament. Sure enough he was in town en route to the charity gala at the Playboy Mansion. I had the pleasure of playing with him for a short while before we met up with Joe Speaker, Change100, Pauly, his friend Senor, and Jason Spaceman, all of whom had come to play in the 1:00pm tournament. Although he didn't place, Senor lasted the longest and then they were off to the Excalibur for some sports betting.

Surprise meetings are the best.

Zen and Retribution

I am currently reading Larry W. Phillips' Zen and the Art of Poker. On page 48 he states :

POKER RULE #34: Detach yourself emotionally from the game.

Does this mean I can't get even with that dipshit who slowrolled me? Every rule has its exception.

Local garbage at Caesar's

You would think I would have learned by now. Every once in awhile I commit the offense of making a large reraise with the second nuts.

I have As5c which makes me the nut flush on the turn. Like a lemur, I check. The river is a ten of spades making a straight flush possible with Qs. I bet $50, fucktard makes it $100, and I go all-in with my remaining $200. I call him fucktard only because he took a full five seconds to call, five seconds which made me think I had won the pot. He then sheepishly turns over the Qs to which I say "Nice hand, next time don't slowroll, pig!" The local Las Vegas poker world is small and you can be sure I will get the opportunity to slowroll him back, not to mention the constant barrage of below the radar insults I will hurl his way.

But back to the gist. What's the point of reraising in this situation if I'll only get called by a better hand? I lost my stack, got slowrolled to boot, and have thus gained the painful learning reinforcement which will keep me out of trouble till who knows when.

They can't leave me alone

 
There's nothing like a $35 "welcome back" bonus to get one's feet wet again in donkeyland.

Limit hold'em against idiots

The Aladdin is having a $50,000 NLHE freeroll tournament on March 5 for those that have clocked 60 hours of play during the months of January and February. At this stage, it looks like about 120 people will qualify.

I've put in my 60 hours, most of it at the 3-6 limit hold'em tables. In retrospect, I should've stuck to 1-2 NL as generally it is less lemurish. A typical 3-6 hand :

I raise on the button with 88 and get two callers.

Flop : K 7 3       Check, check, I bet, call, call.

Turn : J            Check, check, I bet, call, call.

River : A           Bet, call, I fold.

Lemur takes down the pot with Q7o. Jackass doesn't show.

A variation of the KK quandary

I am UTG (under the gun) in a $1-$2 NL cash game with about $175 in front of me. I look down to see KK and decide to limp in. Two more limp in behind me and the button raises to $10. Small blind folds, big blind raises it to $35. The big blind is a playah who is aggressive and mixes it up. I push all-in.

All fold to the button who goes into the tank and then folds. Big blind, who has me covered, instacalls and turns over AA. I lose my stack.

Could I have played this any better?