WSOP here again

My, how time flies! The town is once again filled with poker-playing hopefuls about to get their dreams shattered and their souls crushed.

My next day off from Panda Express will be on June 28th, enabling me to play in Event #55 ($1,500 No-Limit Hold'em). I am confident of a deep run and wouldn't be surprised if I made the final table. There just remains the minor detail of overcoming a $1,462 cash flow shortfall.

The poker ecology

Every few years I happen to stumble upon and reread the excellent paper written by Lawrence Harris entitled "The Winners and Losers of the Zero-Sum Game : The Origins of Trading Profits, Price Efficiency and Market Liquidity".

Trading is a zero-sum game when measured relative to underlying fundamental values. No trader can profit without another trader losing. People trade because they obtain external benefits from trading. These benefits include expected returns from holding securities, risk reduction from holding correlated assets and gambling entertainment. 

Three groups of stylized characteristic traders are examined. Winning traders trade for profit. Utilitarian traders trade because their external benefits of trading are greater than their losses. Futile traders expect to profit but for a variety of reasons their expectation are not realized. 

Winning traders make prices efficient and provide most liquidity. Utilitarian and futile traders effectively underwrite the winning traders' efforts. 

In the paper he mentions the similarity between trading and poker. He lists the many types of traders and how, even among the winning styles, one group will profit from another but will lose to other specific styles.

So informed traders will profit from market-makers but lose to bluffers, while parasitic traders will profit from upstairs traders but lose to informed traders. Note that informed traders, market-makers, bluffers, parasitic traders, and upstairs traders are all classified as winners i.e. if skilled, these traders will profit from trading in the long run.

It would be interesting to see a similar analysis for the different poker playing styles.

One step closer to Macau

I successfully completed the 6-week Mandarin language immersion course last week and immediately tested my linguistic prowess by making some very late night phone calls to Chinese sounding names I randomly pulled out of the phone book. Not only did I manage to effortlessly communicate with the parties involved, but I also picked up a few choice curse words that, not surprisingly, weren't on our syllabus.

Paying for the aforementioned course, however, has put a severe dent in my bankroll and may delay my plans somewhat. In the meantime I am frantically trying to raise some funds to at least cover the cost of the cab ride to McCarran, and a standby ticket to Macau. To this end, I am pleased to report that this post is sponsored by Spreaditfast, and I sincerely hope that other sponsors will step forward to help me realize my dreams.

Speaking of dreams, I now dream in Chinese. This is what 6 weeks of immersion does to you. Upon completion of the course, my mind was so clogged that I had forgotten simple and basic skills like peeling a banana and tying my shoelaces. The good news is that these all can be relearnt fairly quickly. In fact I had even forgotten the hand rankings in poker and how to play Texas Hold'em, but thanks to the following video, a great introductory tutorial produced by our friends at PokerStars, I will now be able to hit the ground running when I eventually touch down in Macau.

Next stop : Macau

I'm wasting my time and potential here in Vegas. The games are no longer a challenge. I have my eyes set upon the nosebleed cash games currently being held in Macau, and am presently enrolled in a 6-week Mandarin Chinese language immersion program jointly run by Berlitz and Panda Express. 

More woes

Microsoft will be withdrawing support for its Windows XP operating system on April 8, 2014. As a long time XP user, I can barely afford the daily bus fare to the Strip, let alone buy a new computer in order to update to the Windows 8 (P)OS. It's true that we were given adequate warning, but Microsoft is abandoning millions of faithful users, so fuck them and the horses they rode in on.

Before you get a tattoo ....

.... make sure the guy can spell.

Eureka!

After years of searching for the Holy Grail of poker, I think I may have finally found it. No more looking for a career, Easy Street here I come.

Poker Player has been advertising a revolutionary new book, "Average Joe's Method", in which we are shown how to predict future flops based on the outcomes of previous flops :

Reduced probability is the essential ingredient of my method. Let me explain. As we know, all poker decks consist of 52 cards, however each one of these cards contain 4 of kind. 52 divided by 4 equals 13. We are now working with a reduced number of 13 digits. Based on 10 players per table, each player will have two whole cards which add up to 20. Since there are only 13 digits available, we now understand that 7 players must have the same digit as one of the other players, or a pocket pair. Statistics have shown that pocket pairs occur 6% of the time or once every 17 hands. Let us assume that on average, one player will have a pocket pair during each deal. This now means 6 players will have matching cards to one another. This reduces the card ratio by another 10.8%. We are now playing with 11.8 digits .....

And so it goes, getting more complicated as one proceeds, but not to worry :

My book omits all the mathematics of my method so it's an easy read for anyone.

Thank goodness for that, because I had started losing the flow of his logic. Anyway, the book arrives in 2 days and then it's financial freedom.

I posted this 4 years ago

Watching the Winter Olympics brings back fond memories of when I competed in the 1988 games in Calgary. I was lagging at the back of the field in the biathlon and, out of sheer frustration, decided my only chance was to open fire directly above the heads of the other competitors. Fortunately sanity prevailed and I quashed that plan. I haven't competed since.

Posting chip stack pics

It's become fashionable to post pictures on Twitter, Instagram, and poker forums of big chip stacks during a winning session.

For consistency's sake, where are the pictures after a brutal, losing session?

Bit of a mouthful

These are the home games you want to be invited to :

This post will self-destruct in 10 minutes

Trying an experiment similar to Snapchat's self-destructing mechanism. If this works, I'll be able to retire and not have to worry about finding work again.

Edit (4 hours later)
As can be seen, the post did not self-destruct. Very disappointing, considering I spent over 2 months writing the necessary code which, when applied to the Blogger template interface, should have resulted in this post's automatic disappearance after 10 minutes. Alas, my dreams of retiring were greatly exaggerated and premature.

The Queen and Dolly

Queen Elizabeth and Dolly Parton die on the same day and they both go before an Angel to find out if they'll be admitted to Heaven.

Unfortunately, there's only one space left that day, so the Angel must decide which of them gets in. The Angel asks Dolly if there's some particular reason why she should go to Heaven.

Dolly takes off her top and says, "Look at these, they're the most perfect breasts God ever created, and I'm sure it will please God to be able to see them every day, for eternity."

The Angel thanks Dolly, and asks Her Majesty the same question. The Queen takes a bottle of Perrier out of her purse, drinks it down, then wees into a toilet and pulls the lever.

The Angel says, "OK, your Majesty, you may go in."

Dolly is outraged and asks, "What was that all about? I show you two of God's perfect creations and you turn me down. She wees into a toilet and she gets in! Would you explain that to me?"

"Sorry, Dolly," says the Angel, "but even in Heaven, a Royal Flush

beats a pair - no matter how big they are."

Casino Player Magazine

Among the various magazines available in some Strip poker rooms is Casino Player. Described as "America's gaming lifestyle magazine", it contains articles on gambling strategy as well as up-to-date casino news, and dining and show reviews.

They claim to look out for the player but it's blatantly obvious by the ads and content that they are deeply in bed with the casino industry. This would be fair enough if they didn't resort to the misleading and luring promises on their front cover and inside.

So, for example, on the cover of the June 2013 edition we are promised "tips for FINALLY beating three card poker". Upon looking inside, the article has the more realistic and sober subheading "Lower the casino's edge with these optimal strategies". Somewhat different from the cover's verbiage and offering no solution to overcoming that pesky 3% house edge.

The latest December 2013 issue has "WINNING BACCARAT STRATEGY" emblazoned on the top left of the cover. Once again, when we bother to actually read the article inside, we are informed that by betting on the banker we will win more frequently than betting on the player, but alas the house edge is still 1.06%. Not to disappoint however, the article ends with "So go ahead and win frequently."

But what really caught my eye was a full-page article about the opening of a new $800-million resort casino. In the sidebar there was the following quote :

Remember this : The house doesn't beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
-Nicholas Dandalos
"Nick the Greek"
(1883 - 1966)

 Aaah, so that's what keeps the Strip lit up.

Sign me up

I may have found my next career choice.

While watching the Nelson Mandela memorial, I couldn't but help notice the ease with which the sign language interpreter conveyed the meaning and emotion of the world leaders' eulogies. It looked fairly simple and I could only discern 7 different signs, making it something even I could master with a little effort.

Once certified, I could be a major asset to any poker room whenever a floor decision needs to be explained to a deaf player.

Finally landed a temporary job

I will be spending the next 2 weeks working as a human directional. Before any of you get overly impressed, it's just a fancy name for a sign twirler. I'll take it though, especially after having botched my last job interview for a position as a wealth management advisor at Morgan Stanley.

I got a fever

The poor fellow in seat 9 was sneezing uncontrollably. Thankfully my seat 3 was outside the contaminated blast zone and therefore in a germ-free area. However I could see the dealer was starting to get visibly agitated and only the internal customer relations training he underwent prevented any verbal response on his part.

Me : Allergies?

Seat 9 : No, I think I'm getting a fever.

Me : I'm a physician. The only prescription is more cowbell.

Seat 9 : Huh?

Vicious animal attack

I apologize for the posting hiatus and am pleased to report that after a 2 week stay at Sunrise Hospital, I was finally released today. A fortnight ago, a confluence of highly unlikely events led to my being set upon by 2 llamas and a miniature horse. Commenting on the incident, officials at the Las Vegas Petting Zoo said it was "extremely unusual and the first of its kind since the zoo's opening 27 years ago".

To its credit, the zoo spared no expense and flew in a highly specialized medical team including 3 groin reconstruction surgeons, ensuring that both my reproductive capacity and voice intonation will thankfully remain intact.

I can now concentrate on rebuilding my career and poker grubstake.

Whoooosh!!!

I've been reading Card Player magazine for the last 10 years and have yet to encounter a strategy article that I could not easily understand. That is until the latest issue (October 2, 2013) containing Reid Young's "How to beat those pesky loose reraisers (or how to be so pesky!)".

Reid Young is a poker coach and author of "The Blue Book : An Advanced Strategy Guide for No-Limit Hold'em Cash Games", an e-book that was initially priced at $2,500 when it came out in 2010. He also posts on 2+2 as shootaa.

Card Player is available for free in card rooms and the target audience of the articles in the magazine generally reflect this. Some writers will have a series of pieces in consecutive issues, each building on the previous one. However, this is Young's first article on the subject. To be fair, he does state :

"A comprehensive look into all of these topics would take scores of articles,..." 

However, we are then bombarded with the likes of :

"At a particular, though opponent dependent, inflection point on a value curve, the ability to charge an opponent  for drawing to a big hand is diminished by an increasingly large preflop stack size, as long as reraise size is held relatively constant."

and

"The need for an equity based range in certain cases makes clear that with different stack sizes, the polarity of the reraising range varies."

There is no doubt that Reid Young has a lot to offer. However, until he descends from Olympus, Card Player is not the appropriate forum for his material.

I give up

Slept all weekend not wishing to wake up and face the real world, which unfortunately came crumbling down around me on Friday when I failed to pass the Head Lice Removal Technician qualifying exam.

My presentation in front of the examining board was going well as I confidently demonstrated the different species of lice which I held in an open petri dish. An ill-timed sneeze, however, resulted in the accidental infestation of all those within a 5 foot radius of me, thereby prematurely ending any chances of my qualifying.

I'm all out of ideas.

Nearly there

Apologies for the recent lull in posting, but I have been preoccupied with studying for my final certification exams which hopefully will lead to full qualification as a Head Lice Removal Technician.

Final assessment is Friday consisting of a 3-hour written test, followed by practical treatment of a severe infestation case.

I know I can do this.