Flushes and boats

Congratulations to Heafy for correctly solving my riddle. This leads me into some interesting observations I made about the frequency of flushes and full houses (boats) based on the statistical reports of Turbo Texas Hold'em, which I posted to 2+2 in August, 1998.

Contrary to the mathematics of a 52 card deck, a tight player will end up with more full houses than flushes. By "end up" I don't necessarily mean winning the hand (though this also holds true for hands won), so theoretically the hand could have been made on the flop and folded on the turn or river, or, of course, beaten. An average player will experience about the same number of fulls and flushes, while a loose player reverts to the statistical norm and has more flushes (both hot and cold) than full houses. For a given tight player, the difference is greatest when he's under the gun, and as the starting hand possibilities increase with position so does the gap between fulls and flushes close, till we reach the button where the number of fulls and flushes is about equal. The small blind then reverts back to UTG conditions, while the big blind, not surprisingly, is the only position (for a tight player) where flushes outnumber fulls, as nature intended them to do.

The European variation of 5 card draw, which I've played a fair bit of, has 2-6 removed ie. uses a 32 card deck. In this game, as opposed to its American 52 card counterpart, flushes beat full houses. This is because flushes are less frequent than fulls in a 32 card (7-A) deck. The tight player in hold'em (especially in the early positions) has also in effect removed 2-6 from his starting hands. This may partially explain the phenomenom described above.

Give a dog a bone

If no one correctly answers my riddle, I will offer the solution as my bounty in the WPBT Winter Classic.

The local philanthropists really outdid themselves yesterday when they threw a Thanksgiving spread for the boys. Most of us have no family to speak of, so we were very grateful.

Lifeline II

The game is no limit 5 card draw. Two players are left in a hand which has reached showdown. One is all in and the pot is a little over $500. The called player tables 3 kings (three of a kind). The other player, who is sitting to my immediate right, peeks at his hand lifting the cards up just enough for me to see a queen high straight, and then mucks. We continue playing.

Would anyone care to explain this apparent conundrum?

Lifeline

I've always enjoyed watching Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, especially in a group setting. I am the undisputed champion here at the shelter and the boys have set up a fund to get me a ticket to New York so that I can audition for the real thing. We've collected $12.57 to date, and at this rate I should be airbound sometime in the fall of 2007. One can only hope that the show will still be in production then.

So it was with great interest that I read that fellow poker blogger Jason Kirk will be going to NYC in 2 weeks to audition for WWTBAM. As a gesture of solidarity, I hereby offer my Phone-a-Friend list to Jason so that he may have this unparalleled intellectual firepower at his disposal.

Subjects                                                        Phone-a-Friend
Human biology, literature                                     Daddy

Animal kingdom, music                                        Daddy

Food, Kathy Liebert                                              Daddy


Good luck, Jason!!

It's the little things

I can barely contain my excitement. It's November and that means hot soup is being served again. It's the least they can do to compensate for the lack of heat.

Douchebaggery

Not surprisingly, we have witnessed snippets of poor behavior from the current broadcasts of the 2005 WSOP. Rather than pass judgement on Steve Dannenmann vs. Howard Lederer (bragging phone call), or Corey Zeidman vs. Jennifer Harman (slowrolling the nuts), I present 2 cases of douchebaggery which I've personally encountered.

The first occurred during a $2-$5 NLHE game at the Mirage in November, 2004. The exact details of the hand are irrelevant - suffice it to say that the final board was

Q J 2 2 2

3 players, each with about $500, were all-in. I had QQ, another player held JJ and a boorish tourist took down the $1,500 pot with K2s. Till that point this remains within the realms of a bad beat and I would have probably forgotten this particular hand but for what happened next. Boorish tourist stands up and yells across to his friend at another table

"Hey Bill! I just won a grand with quads!"

He temporarily forgot that poker is a zero-sum game (ignoring rake) and that 2 people just lost $500 each and weren't exactly in the mood to be publicly reminded of the fact.

The second also took place in November, 2004, but this time at the $10-$20 NLHE game at the Bellagio. I limp in with T9 spades and after a flop of

T T 9

it is just me and young engineer tourist who is to my immediate left. We started the hand with about $1,500 each. The turn and river are rags by which time I put him all-in. Young engineer tourist goes into the tank, his head in his arms. He is clearly in no rush to make a decision and his time spent thinking is not bothering me as much as the accompanying monologue.

"If I win this pot I'll be able to get my wife a real nice Xmas present."

I put him on trip tens. Then more head scratching followed by

"This is difficult. But if I win this, I'll be able to really surprise my wife."

This went on for about 4 minutes till he finally called and his AT wasn't good enough. I didn't even acknowledge his dejected presence and he left the table shortly thereafter. Say anything you want during a hand, but don't tell me about your plans of spending my money, thank you very much.

Edit : Having seen the rest of the WSOP broadcasts, it is clear that Steve Dannenmann is a great guy who was having the time of his life. The "phone call" was just part of the fun.

Since everyone's doing it...

My blog is worth

jack

shit.
How much is your blog worth?

We Gotta Get Out Of This Place

People often ask me how I spend my free time at the shelter. Lately I have a lot on my mind so boredom is not a problem. I feel that I have to break out of my current (8 year old) slump. A quick glance at the figures to the right only serves as encouragement. My NL game is ready for a much needed advancement and I intend to bring this about with a multipronged assault on 3 fronts :

(1) NL simulations
It shouldn't be too difficult to define simple player-specific models by which one can garner all sorts of statistics regarding bankroll fluctuations. I consider this a macro approach and will reference the following among other sources.

(2) The application of [0,1] games
I would like to apply aspects of Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman's excellent work on [0,1] games to specific NL situations. This would be the micro approach.

(3) Implementation of (1) and (2)
Optimal play may be psychologically discomforting. With this in mind, I believe that having the discipline to follow through with a predetermined strategy will be my biggest challenge.

Good music, good times

Went to the Aladdin on Saturday night to hear the Alan Parsons Live Project who were playing with the Las Vegas Philharmonic. Really awesome, especially lead guitarist Godfrey Townsend and drummer Steve Murphy, both of whom I know from my New York days, when they played in Queens bars as There and Back.

60

Happy birthday to tampa/big cheese/mad dog, my good close personal friend. Looking forward to many more AIM sessions.

Libraries are closed on Sundays

And October 23rd, 2005 happens to fall on a Sunday, which means I have to find a real cheap internet cafe because ...

I have registered to play in the
Online Poker Blogger Championship!

This event is powered by PokerStars.

Registration code: 6388484

Green Valley Ranch - Part II

The pressures of life and a debilitating skin rash have prevented me from posting the sequel to Part I in a more timely fashion, so refresh your memories here.

My bus journey to GVR (Green Valley Ranch) involved 3 buses (202, 110, 114) and took about 1½ hours, but the CAT system generously allowed me 2 transfers so the total fare was just $1.25. The more astute among you have already calculated that after a $100 buy-in I would not have enough for the fare home, assuming of course that I lost my initial buy-in. Well dear readers, I had no intention of losing my buy-in. I would fold TPTK (top pair top kicker) on the flop if I sensed any strength in my opponent. The stacks that I have lost by putting my faith in TPTK, if placed one on top of the other, would breach the earth's atmosphere. It was a hard lesson to learn, but learn it I did. Besides which, if I was going to spend 3 hours travelling to and from a friggin' poker game, it would be such a shame to get knocked out after only 10 minutes.

I arrived at about 10pm and promptly put my name on the list. There were two $1-$2 NL games being spread in this relatively new poker room, so I didn't have to wait very long before my name was called.

"What's the minimum buy-in?" I asked the brush, knowing full well it was $100.

"$100" he replied.

"And the maximum?" A rhetorical question to be sure, but I had to throw it in for my pride.

"$200" he retorted.

"Let's start with $100 then." Yeah, and rebuy with my remaining 75 cents if necessary.

The table was a mixture of locals and dealers and I couldn't spot the sucker. Nevertheless, I held my own, picking and choosing my battles, and after what seemed like 3 hours but actually was 8, I had built my stack to about $400. Time to go, I thought to myself.

Suddenly, the shift supervisor came running up to the table and handed out a green button to each player. The bad beat jackpot of over $277,000 had just gone off at Sunset Station (quad 5's beaten by quad jacks) and all players playing hold'em at the 6 Station properties would share the jackpot after deducting $35,000 for the quad fives and $20,000 for the quad jacks. After some tense waiting, we were informed that the prize would be split among 110 players, meaning each of us would get $2,040.

Even though I could afford a cab, I chose to walk to the 114 bus stop. For once, I wanted to prolong the journey home.

On Target

Unfortunately variance has not reared its ugly head so I am well on target to achieving another $3,000 losing month.

One Speaker, One Bracelet

Having the right connections in Vegas has landed me a cushy job providing a source of much needed extra income. And so it was that last Saturday night I was on the Strip handing out those little promotional cards when who should bump into me but Joe Speaker and Bobby Bracelet. As much as I would have liked to take off with them then and there, it was pretty close to the end of my shift, so they kindly agreed to wait. This is one job I'm taking very seriously.

It wasn't long before we were all playing $1-$2 no limit hold'em at the Aladdin. There were several interesting hands that came up, one in which Joe took down a huge pot making a great call with his ace high. Poker at its finest, to quote Mike Sexton. I couldn't have met two nicer guys and after an enjoyable session, it was time to part ways. Bobby had finagled himself a luxury player's suite at NYNY by some modest albeit effective palm greasing, Joe was staying at the Excalibur, and I slowly trudged back to the shelter with a smile on my face.

Second Annual WPBT Winter Classic

After a successful blogger's tournament in June, details of this year's winter event are starting to emerge. According to someone in the know, it is slated for December 10th at the Imperial Palace. The IP is within walking distance of the shelter so I'm psyched. There only remains the formality of raising the requisite $65 entry fee by December. I'll give it my best shot.

All-in

I am limited to 30 minutes of internet access per day, and for this I am grateful. As a result, I find it difficult to keep abreast of all the poker blogs I subscribe to in Bloglines. One blog which has recently caught my eye, both for its visual appeal and content, is Steal The Blinds, a joint effort by Jaxia, Beck and Mike. I particularly enjoy Beck's analytical yet colorful descriptions of his adventures at the $1-$2 NL tables, which I vicariously relish most notably when I'm broke and on the rail. His latest post describes a situation which all NL players are familiar with. Please go ahead and read it if you wish to follow the rest of my post, as I have no intention of repeating it here.

I agree with Beck that an all-in reraise was warranted here, and with the gist of his analysis. There are, however, 2 statements which I disagree with. The first is nitpicking on my part, and does not alter the conclusion drawn:

"Unfortunately, the large stack turned over 7s - 8s. He had both a straight draw AND a flush draw, all rolled up in one cute little hand. He had, in other words, 15 outs, not 9. With two cards to come, that made him a favorite in the hand, not a 5-2 dog as I had surmised. His call, astonishingly enough, was perfectly correct here."

The 9s is not an out, so it should be "14 outs, not 8". He is still favorite though.

There is, however, a serious flaw in the following paragraphs:

"If we assume that one person had two pair (probably Ace-Nine, what with how three of the 6s are accounted for by our hand), that one person had an open-ended straight draw, and that another person had a flush draw, there are 18 to 19 outs (depending on whether the person with two pair is holding the 9 of spades) out against you with two cards to come. You are, in other words, a favorite to lose the hand. If someone improves on the turn, the only redraw you will have is one out to quad 6s.

Calling here gives any or all of those outs a chance to catch up. You could end the hand with the third or even fourth best hand despite being in first on the flop. As a consequence, folding here could well be the best EV play, assuming you know that no one is going to fold no matter what you do."

For the scenario outlined above, twodimes gives us the following EV's:

66 (you) 36.5%
OESD 16.1%
Flush draw 29.1%
2 pair 18.3%

Clearly the probability of our winning the hand (36.5%) is less than the probability of losing (63.5%), but we are still the favorite to win the hand (and certainly not a "favorite to lose the hand"). As such, assuming that no one is going to fold, the best EV play is not folding (as suggested by Beck above) but betting as much as we can.

Beck, I really enjoy your well thought out posts. Keep'em coming!

When The Levee Breaks

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
And the water gonna come in, have no place to stay

Well all last night I sat on the levee and moan
Well all last night I sat on the levee and moan
Thinkin' 'bout my baby and my happy home

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
And all these people have no place to stay

Now look here mama what am I to do
Now look here mama what am I to do
I ain't got nobody to tell my troubles to

I works on the levee mama both night and day
I works on the levee mama both night and day
I ain't got nobody, keep the water away

Oh cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do no good
Oh cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to lose

I works on the levee, mama both night and day
I works on the levee, mama both night and day
I works so hard, to keep the water away

I had a woman, she wouldn't do for me
I had a woman, she wouldn't do for me
I'm goin' back to my used to be

I's a mean old levee, cause me to weep and moan
I's a mean old levee, cause me to weep and moan
Gonna leave my baby, and my happy home

Memphis Minnie McCoy, 1929


Led Zeppelin re-worked the above and released their version in the album "Led Zeppelin IV" in 1971.

Green Valley Ranch - Part I

Jimmy is about my age and, like me, is a gambling spirit. He started on Wall Street, over-extended himself in some crazy speculative option plays, switched to commodities and blew out when he stubbornly held on to a large position in cattle futures which went against him. He shares the bunk above me at the shelter.

Last Friday I wanted to check out the new poker room in Green Valley Ranch. It spreads NLHE and had a progressive bad beat jackpot of over $277,000. But hey, who was I kidding? I didn't even have $1.25 for the bus fare to get there, let alone the minimum $100 buy-in.

Jimmy was lying above me reading the Wall Street Journal when I gently kicked him.

"Hey Jimmy, have you got $102 till Monday?"

Nothing in particular was going to happen on Monday vis-a-vis my financial situation, but it sounded reassuringly close enough for him, and just far enough into the future to not matter for me. Besides which, Jimmy had recently gotten lucky at a slot machine to the tune of $500 and I figured he'd still have some of it. Not to mention all the times when I had lent him money.

He made it relatively short and painless for me, and hardly 5 seconds had elapsed when he lowered his hand clasping a C-note and two singles.

"Thanks Jimmy. I'm going to play some $1-$2 NLHE tonight. You in for 50%?"

The 10 seconds of ensuing silence answered my question.

"OK, seeya later, Jimmy."

Table Image

Aladdin $1-$2 NLHE. I buy in for the maximum of $200, a sum that has taken me 3 weeks to scrape together. The table is being run over by a very funny LAG (loose aggressive player) who is cracking everyone up with his crazy antics. He is involved in virtually every hand, has shown many bluffs and has built up his original $200 buy-in to a stack of about $600. I am sitting 4 seats to his left with about $400 in front of me and am on the button when the following hand ensues.

EP (early position) raises to $7, all fold to LAG who calls. I call with 66 and the blinds fold. Three of us take the flop which comes :

8 6 4 rainbow

EP bets $20 and LAG immediately raises to $135. From his previous play, the range of hands I put LAG on are 32o to AA. As I prepare to call, LAG looks at me and says "I've got a big hand. Don't call." I call, as does EP who, with about $60 remaining, seems pot committed.

Turn : Q

EP checks, LAG bets $200 and announces "A set is no good - be careful!" At this stage, I figure there's a good chance he is actually holding 75 (or a higher set) and under normal circumstances I would fold. But this guy has been pulling off bluff after bluff and I feel there is a reasonable chance that I may have the best hand. I go all-in with my remaining $260 as does EP, and LAG calls.

EP turns over JJ and LAG shows 75o for the nut straight. Oh well, time to suck out on somebody - lord knows how many times I've been on the receiving end. I get up, look the dealer in the eye and let out a mighty "Pair the board!"

River : 8

Yeah baby! LAG is stunned.

"You made a bad call, you know that?" he says.

I reply, "Considering your table image, I don't think it was such a bad call."

I now have $1,000 in front of me. Could this be my ticket out of the shelter?

Summer in the City

Hot town, summer in the city
Back of my neck getting dirty and gritty
Been down, isn't it a pity
Doesn't seem to be a shadow in the city

All around, people looking half dead
Walking on the sidewalk, hotter than a match head

(The Lovin' Spoonful)

I am on a summer hiatus (writer's block) and have been spending my time reading, gourmet dining (soup kitchen) and catching up on some outdoor activities (mandatory community service).