60

Happy birthday to tampa/big cheese/mad dog, my good close personal friend. Looking forward to many more AIM sessions.

Libraries are closed on Sundays

And October 23rd, 2005 happens to fall on a Sunday, which means I have to find a real cheap internet cafe because ...

I have registered to play in the
Online Poker Blogger Championship!

This event is powered by PokerStars.

Registration code: 6388484

Green Valley Ranch - Part II

The pressures of life and a debilitating skin rash have prevented me from posting the sequel to Part I in a more timely fashion, so refresh your memories here.

My bus journey to GVR (Green Valley Ranch) involved 3 buses (202, 110, 114) and took about 1½ hours, but the CAT system generously allowed me 2 transfers so the total fare was just $1.25. The more astute among you have already calculated that after a $100 buy-in I would not have enough for the fare home, assuming of course that I lost my initial buy-in. Well dear readers, I had no intention of losing my buy-in. I would fold TPTK (top pair top kicker) on the flop if I sensed any strength in my opponent. The stacks that I have lost by putting my faith in TPTK, if placed one on top of the other, would breach the earth's atmosphere. It was a hard lesson to learn, but learn it I did. Besides which, if I was going to spend 3 hours travelling to and from a friggin' poker game, it would be such a shame to get knocked out after only 10 minutes.

I arrived at about 10pm and promptly put my name on the list. There were two $1-$2 NL games being spread in this relatively new poker room, so I didn't have to wait very long before my name was called.

"What's the minimum buy-in?" I asked the brush, knowing full well it was $100.

"$100" he replied.

"And the maximum?" A rhetorical question to be sure, but I had to throw it in for my pride.

"$200" he retorted.

"Let's start with $100 then." Yeah, and rebuy with my remaining 75 cents if necessary.

The table was a mixture of locals and dealers and I couldn't spot the sucker. Nevertheless, I held my own, picking and choosing my battles, and after what seemed like 3 hours but actually was 8, I had built my stack to about $400. Time to go, I thought to myself.

Suddenly, the shift supervisor came running up to the table and handed out a green button to each player. The bad beat jackpot of over $277,000 had just gone off at Sunset Station (quad 5's beaten by quad jacks) and all players playing hold'em at the 6 Station properties would share the jackpot after deducting $35,000 for the quad fives and $20,000 for the quad jacks. After some tense waiting, we were informed that the prize would be split among 110 players, meaning each of us would get $2,040.

Even though I could afford a cab, I chose to walk to the 114 bus stop. For once, I wanted to prolong the journey home.

On Target

Unfortunately variance has not reared its ugly head so I am well on target to achieving another $3,000 losing month.

One Speaker, One Bracelet

Having the right connections in Vegas has landed me a cushy job providing a source of much needed extra income. And so it was that last Saturday night I was on the Strip handing out those little promotional cards when who should bump into me but Joe Speaker and Bobby Bracelet. As much as I would have liked to take off with them then and there, it was pretty close to the end of my shift, so they kindly agreed to wait. This is one job I'm taking very seriously.

It wasn't long before we were all playing $1-$2 no limit hold'em at the Aladdin. There were several interesting hands that came up, one in which Joe took down a huge pot making a great call with his ace high. Poker at its finest, to quote Mike Sexton. I couldn't have met two nicer guys and after an enjoyable session, it was time to part ways. Bobby had finagled himself a luxury player's suite at NYNY by some modest albeit effective palm greasing, Joe was staying at the Excalibur, and I slowly trudged back to the shelter with a smile on my face.

Second Annual WPBT Winter Classic

After a successful blogger's tournament in June, details of this year's winter event are starting to emerge. According to someone in the know, it is slated for December 10th at the Imperial Palace. The IP is within walking distance of the shelter so I'm psyched. There only remains the formality of raising the requisite $65 entry fee by December. I'll give it my best shot.

All-in

I am limited to 30 minutes of internet access per day, and for this I am grateful. As a result, I find it difficult to keep abreast of all the poker blogs I subscribe to in Bloglines. One blog which has recently caught my eye, both for its visual appeal and content, is Steal The Blinds, a joint effort by Jaxia, Beck and Mike. I particularly enjoy Beck's analytical yet colorful descriptions of his adventures at the $1-$2 NL tables, which I vicariously relish most notably when I'm broke and on the rail. His latest post describes a situation which all NL players are familiar with. Please go ahead and read it if you wish to follow the rest of my post, as I have no intention of repeating it here.

I agree with Beck that an all-in reraise was warranted here, and with the gist of his analysis. There are, however, 2 statements which I disagree with. The first is nitpicking on my part, and does not alter the conclusion drawn:

"Unfortunately, the large stack turned over 7s - 8s. He had both a straight draw AND a flush draw, all rolled up in one cute little hand. He had, in other words, 15 outs, not 9. With two cards to come, that made him a favorite in the hand, not a 5-2 dog as I had surmised. His call, astonishingly enough, was perfectly correct here."

The 9s is not an out, so it should be "14 outs, not 8". He is still favorite though.

There is, however, a serious flaw in the following paragraphs:

"If we assume that one person had two pair (probably Ace-Nine, what with how three of the 6s are accounted for by our hand), that one person had an open-ended straight draw, and that another person had a flush draw, there are 18 to 19 outs (depending on whether the person with two pair is holding the 9 of spades) out against you with two cards to come. You are, in other words, a favorite to lose the hand. If someone improves on the turn, the only redraw you will have is one out to quad 6s.

Calling here gives any or all of those outs a chance to catch up. You could end the hand with the third or even fourth best hand despite being in first on the flop. As a consequence, folding here could well be the best EV play, assuming you know that no one is going to fold no matter what you do."

For the scenario outlined above, twodimes gives us the following EV's:

66 (you) 36.5%
OESD 16.1%
Flush draw 29.1%
2 pair 18.3%

Clearly the probability of our winning the hand (36.5%) is less than the probability of losing (63.5%), but we are still the favorite to win the hand (and certainly not a "favorite to lose the hand"). As such, assuming that no one is going to fold, the best EV play is not folding (as suggested by Beck above) but betting as much as we can.

Beck, I really enjoy your well thought out posts. Keep'em coming!

When The Levee Breaks

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
And the water gonna come in, have no place to stay

Well all last night I sat on the levee and moan
Well all last night I sat on the levee and moan
Thinkin' 'bout my baby and my happy home

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
And all these people have no place to stay

Now look here mama what am I to do
Now look here mama what am I to do
I ain't got nobody to tell my troubles to

I works on the levee mama both night and day
I works on the levee mama both night and day
I ain't got nobody, keep the water away

Oh cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do no good
Oh cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to lose

I works on the levee, mama both night and day
I works on the levee, mama both night and day
I works so hard, to keep the water away

I had a woman, she wouldn't do for me
I had a woman, she wouldn't do for me
I'm goin' back to my used to be

I's a mean old levee, cause me to weep and moan
I's a mean old levee, cause me to weep and moan
Gonna leave my baby, and my happy home

Memphis Minnie McCoy, 1929


Led Zeppelin re-worked the above and released their version in the album "Led Zeppelin IV" in 1971.

Green Valley Ranch - Part I

Jimmy is about my age and, like me, is a gambling spirit. He started on Wall Street, over-extended himself in some crazy speculative option plays, switched to commodities and blew out when he stubbornly held on to a large position in cattle futures which went against him. He shares the bunk above me at the shelter.

Last Friday I wanted to check out the new poker room in Green Valley Ranch. It spreads NLHE and had a progressive bad beat jackpot of over $277,000. But hey, who was I kidding? I didn't even have $1.25 for the bus fare to get there, let alone the minimum $100 buy-in.

Jimmy was lying above me reading the Wall Street Journal when I gently kicked him.

"Hey Jimmy, have you got $102 till Monday?"

Nothing in particular was going to happen on Monday vis-a-vis my financial situation, but it sounded reassuringly close enough for him, and just far enough into the future to not matter for me. Besides which, Jimmy had recently gotten lucky at a slot machine to the tune of $500 and I figured he'd still have some of it. Not to mention all the times when I had lent him money.

He made it relatively short and painless for me, and hardly 5 seconds had elapsed when he lowered his hand clasping a C-note and two singles.

"Thanks Jimmy. I'm going to play some $1-$2 NLHE tonight. You in for 50%?"

The 10 seconds of ensuing silence answered my question.

"OK, seeya later, Jimmy."

Table Image

Aladdin $1-$2 NLHE. I buy in for the maximum of $200, a sum that has taken me 3 weeks to scrape together. The table is being run over by a very funny LAG (loose aggressive player) who is cracking everyone up with his crazy antics. He is involved in virtually every hand, has shown many bluffs and has built up his original $200 buy-in to a stack of about $600. I am sitting 4 seats to his left with about $400 in front of me and am on the button when the following hand ensues.

EP (early position) raises to $7, all fold to LAG who calls. I call with 66 and the blinds fold. Three of us take the flop which comes :

8 6 4 rainbow

EP bets $20 and LAG immediately raises to $135. From his previous play, the range of hands I put LAG on are 32o to AA. As I prepare to call, LAG looks at me and says "I've got a big hand. Don't call." I call, as does EP who, with about $60 remaining, seems pot committed.

Turn : Q

EP checks, LAG bets $200 and announces "A set is no good - be careful!" At this stage, I figure there's a good chance he is actually holding 75 (or a higher set) and under normal circumstances I would fold. But this guy has been pulling off bluff after bluff and I feel there is a reasonable chance that I may have the best hand. I go all-in with my remaining $260 as does EP, and LAG calls.

EP turns over JJ and LAG shows 75o for the nut straight. Oh well, time to suck out on somebody - lord knows how many times I've been on the receiving end. I get up, look the dealer in the eye and let out a mighty "Pair the board!"

River : 8

Yeah baby! LAG is stunned.

"You made a bad call, you know that?" he says.

I reply, "Considering your table image, I don't think it was such a bad call."

I now have $1,000 in front of me. Could this be my ticket out of the shelter?

Summer in the City

Hot town, summer in the city
Back of my neck getting dirty and gritty
Been down, isn't it a pity
Doesn't seem to be a shadow in the city

All around, people looking half dead
Walking on the sidewalk, hotter than a match head

(The Lovin' Spoonful)

I am on a summer hiatus (writer's block) and have been spending my time reading, gourmet dining (soup kitchen) and catching up on some outdoor activities (mandatory community service).

Homework Assignment

(1) Read the following 2 articles:

      (a) HDouble's "Climbing the Limit Poker Mountain"

      (b) Tommy Angelo's "The Worst Play Ever"

(2) No limit (NL) poker is supposedly about playing the player and not the cards. Extracting ideas from both articles, devise and test "moves" that are both profitable (positive expectation) and hero card-independent (you're the hero) in today's typical NL cash games.

(3) Are you able to implement these "moves" in live play with relative ease?

Charlie's Tournament

It was great playing in Charlie's tournament this afternoon. I was at the same table as Jason, Mr. Decker, Human Head and Derek together with some readers, before being teleported around according to the whims of PokerStars' software. Congratulations to sarahbellum for first place, and Mr. Decker for coming back from a short stack of $140 to finish second. I came 55th out of a total of 144 participants and, as illustrated below, I got my money in as the favorite in the last hand and suffered a horrendous bad beat. Oh well, under the circumstances it was all I could do, given the fickle nature of the poker gods. I'll sleep well tonight.



Big thanks to Iggy and BG for organizing this event. In a related matter, Joe Hachem, another Melbourne boy, took down the 2005 WSOP. Kudos, mate!

Pokernomics

I don't play online, but maybe there are others who might find interest in this project.

FFT

I was first formally introduced to the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) many years ago as a research assistant to a Professor of Statistics at a renowned Institute of Technology. His specialization was in Gaussian random fields and I remember using the FFT, then a few lines of FORTRAN code, as part of my work.

Today, FFT takes on a new meaning. Final Fucking Table. Yes, dear readers, the FFT of the WSOP main event is about to get underway. Mike "The Mouth" Matusow and 8 unknowns. I'm rooting for Mike and the Aussie, Joe Hachem. As per usual, get all real-time juicy details from Pauly and the other WSOP links on the right.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, oy, oy ,oy!

Mikey, Mikey, Mikey, oy, oy, vey!

For Charlie Tuttle

CJ expresses it better than I can. See you Sunday.

A typical Friday night

"There is a time for playing cards and there is a time for playing."
- Ecclesiastes 3:1-8

Friday nights are reserved for playing. There can be no other way as the daily grind of live NL cash games exacts a hefty toll on my psyche. I need a diversion urgently.

Friday night, 9:35pm
One last look in the mirror. I tighten my belt one more notch, but there is no avoiding the Homer Simpson-like side profile. No matter, if this is the price I have to pay for maturity and a modicum of sophistication, then so be it. I fling the fur coat around my shoulders, apply a final spritz from a 30-year-old bottle of Aramis and slam the door behind me.

Friday night, 9:36pm
Bang frantically on the front door upon realizing that my keys are still on the coffee table. The banging stops when I remember that I live alone. My neighbor has a spare key and hopefully will be home when I return later from/with my conquest.

Friday night, 9:40pm
My cab arrives. I could swear some part of my clothing rips as I contort my way into the back seat.

Driver: "Where to, Sir?"
Me: "Bellagio."

I expect the crowd at the Light nightclub to be the pick-me-up I so desperately need.

Driver: "Aramis?"
Me: "Davidoff."

Let him call my bluff if he doesn't want a tip. I fart silently to confuse him further.

Friday night, 10:00pm
The cabbie drops me off at the Flamingo Street entrance and I nearly collapse as the hot 98 degree night air hits me. What's with this fur coat shit, a habit I can't seem to shake from my New York days, or should I say nights.

Friday night, 10:05pm
I am in the men's room, rubbing the soaked back of my shirt against the electric hand dryer. The place now reeks of Aramis. Luckily it's a young crowd.

Friday night, 10:25pm
The bouncer at the Light, for some unknown reason, doesn't want to let me in.

Bouncer: "It's a private evening, Sir."

Meanwhile everyone and their dog is being let in. I hate resorting to the old Benjamin Franklin trick, but he leaves me no alternative.

Me: "Maybe this will refresh your memory."
Bouncer: "Sorry, Sir."

At least he has the decency to return the crumpled up $1 note, which I immediately deposit into a nearby slot machine.

Friday night, 10:35pm
Me: "What's the list like for $2-$5 No Limit?"
Poker Floorman: "You'll be sixth, Sir. Aramis?"

2005 World Series of Poker

This will probably be my only post on the 2005 WSOP.

It's Party Time

This time it came in a USPS delivered cardboard box. Upon opening it, I found a PartyPoker hat together with a letter informing me that I had a $30 bonus waiting if I played 150 raked hands. Not wishing to repeat the same mistake I made last time, I threw Kelly and caution to the wind and immediately bought in for $25 in a $25 NL game. It wasn't long before I had $44.35 in front of me, and then the following hand transpired (my apologies, but bison's hand converter doesn't accurately reflect the side pots):

Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: Hero ( $44.35 )
Seat 5: mXXX ( $61.72 )
Seat 6: bXXX ( $5.3 )
Seat 1: wXXX ( $5.8 )
Seat 4: aXXX ( $23.55 )
Seat 2: EXXX ( $5.44 )
Seat 8: sXXX ( $11.05 )
Seat 3: BXXX ( $6.7 )
Seat 9: AXXX ( $19.95 )
Seat 10: cXXX ( $7.65 )
cXXX posts small blind [$0.1].
wXXX posts big blind [$0.25].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah Kh ]
EXXX folds.
BXXX folds.
aXXX raises [$1].
mXXX raises [$1.75].
bXXX folds.
Hero calls [$1.75].
sXXX calls [$1.75].
AXXX folds.
cXXX folds.
wXXX folds.
aXXX raises [$2].
mXXX calls [$1.25].
Hero calls [$1.25].
sXXX is all-In [$9.3]
aXXX calls [$8.05].
mXXX calls [$8.05].
Hero calls [$8.05].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, Kc, 6c ]
aXXX checks.
mXXX bets [$15].
Hero calls [$15].
aXXX is all-In [$12.5]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 5c ]
mXXX checks.
Hero is all-In [$18.3]
mXXX calls [$18.3].

** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
mXXX shows [ Ks, Qc ] a pair of kings.
Hero shows [ Ah, Kh ] two pairs, aces and kings.
sXXX doesn't show [ Ts, As ] a pair of aces.
aXXX shows [ Qs, Qd ] a pair of queens.

Hero wins $41.6 from side pot #2 with two pairs, aces and kings.
Hero wins $36.7 from side pot #1 with two pairs, aces and kings.
Hero wins $42.35 from the main pot with two pairs, aces and kings.

To my dismay, rather than blowing my buy-in, I now had $120.65 plus the unused $5. So what next, the $50 NL tables?

WPT Kamikaze

For those who missed last night's WPT Bay 101 Shooting Stars of Poker (actually played on March 11, 2005), it was one of the wildest final tables ever televised. It's down to 4 players and our two protagonists are Danny Nguyen, a San Jose poker dealer, and Shandor Szentkuti, a 36 year old amateur from Pacifica, CA.

Szentkuti, with $680,000 in front of him, has been playing tightly while Nguyen, with $545,000, has been involved in virtually every pot, trying to run over the table by bullying and bluffing.

Szentkuti, with A♠ K♣, decides it's time to put an end to Nguyen's madness and calls the latter's all-in bet of $545,000.
Nguyen has A♦ 7♦.

Flop: K 5 5 with one diamond.

Nguyen needs running diamonds or running 7's to win. At this stage, Szentkuti is a 96% favorite.

Turn: 7♣

River: 7♠

Needless to say, Szentkuti was crippled and went out the very next hand.

For Szentkuti, the emotional scars created will most likely manifest themselves in a combination of the following :

(1) Frequent and uncontrollable flashbacks of the hand
(2) Morbid feelings of self-pity
(3) Morbid feelings of wanting to strangle Danny Nguyen
(4) Deep regret at not winning a higher prize

The inevitable neuroses will only be magnified by the feedback loop of interaction with his perceived mass viewing audience.

Poker is becoming a dangerous sport. Make no mistake, this nationally televised suckout ranks right up there with the other life events (loss of job, illness etc.) and consequently Szentkuti is a prime candidate for some form of post-traumatic stress disorder.