Wednesday, February 06, 2013

One more for Snopes

Last June, there was a report in the Las Vegas Sun, together with accompanying photo, about a roulette wheel at the Rio hitting the number 19 an incredible seven times in a row.

Knowing that the odds of this happening are about 3 billion to 1, I immediately dismissed this and attributed it to some electronic malfunction.

Sure enough, the very next day a Rio spokesman told the paper, "There was no one playing at that table. It was just a diagnostic test being done."

In her latest column in Poker Player (February 11, 2013), Barbara Rogers writes :

A good friend of mine, Mike from Rhode Island, played in a game recently where the same player was dealt pocket aces four times in a row. What’s even more incredible is they were the same suit each time, ace of clubs, and the ace of diamonds. As hard as it is to believe, it’s true; you know anything can happen in this game of ours. The chances of it happening are comparable to: winning the lottery 5 times or getting struck by lightning three times in your lifetime. The chance of random aces three times in a row is 1 in 10,793,308. One players’ response to “ace man” was “there is no (f -in) way you have pocket aces four times in a row, I call!”

The chance of random aces three times in a row is actually 1 in 10,793,861 and, had this been the case, I could have believed the story. But the odds of being dealt the exact same hand 3 times in a row are about 2.3 billion to 1, so I have to call BS on Mike's yarn.


lightning36 said...

Sounds like a coverup. I am immediately going to play roulette and play 19 every hand ...