Friday, June 10, 2011

Are we close to capitulation?

Market capitulation is defined in Wikipedia :

Market capitulation refers to the threshold reached after a severe fall in the market, when large numbers of investors can no longer tolerate the financial losses incurred. These investors then capitulate (give up) and sell in panic, or find that their pre-set sell stops have been triggered, thereby automatically liquidating their holdings in a given stock. This may trigger a further decline in the stock's price, if not already anticipated by the market. Margin calls and mutual fund and hedge fund redemptions significantly contribute to capitulations.

The contrarians consider a capitulation a sign of a possible bottom in prices. This is because almost everyone who wanted (or was forced) to sell stock has already done so, leaving the buyers in the market, and they are expected to drive the prices up.

The peak in volume may precede an actual bottom.

Why didn't I buy stocks in March, 2009? Because, like everyone else, I was too scared to touch them. And that's when the big money was to be made.

Phil Ivey has capitulated. F-Train has capitulated and finally removed the FTP banner from his blog. TonyG has capitulated and PokerNews is not referring any more clients to FTP. Quadjacks have capitulated. Bill Rini is moving toward capitulation.

2p2 is full of threads harshly criticizing Full Tilt's management and team pros. The company is eulogized in every 5th post, with many US players having written off their funds. Non-US players are complaining about cashout problems.

I'm not sure if we have reached full capitulation, but what this all means to me is that we are closer to a surprise development in this saga. I've been wrong before, but if it were possible to purchase FTP shares, I would start buying now.