It seems like every time I have QQ, an ace or king appears on the flop. This is substantiated by the math which puts the percentage at 41.43%. There is therefore the tendency to either check on the flop, or even fold when faced with a bet when an ace or king flops.
However, invoking Bayes' Theorem, the probability that our opponent is holding at least one ace, given that there is at least an ace on the flop, is 12.1%. This is the figure to keep in mind before thinking about ditching the ladies.
3 comments:
if the opponent called a preflop raise, his chances of having an ace go up substansually
Your point is valid. My contention, however, is that one should not be deterred by the appearance of an ace or king on the flop and should proceed with the usual standard c-bet. If our opponent continues, then we can reassess the situation on the turn.
A lot would depend on our opponent's tendencies. The chances of a loose player (who calls our preflop raise with 54s+, 64s+, T7s+, 76o+, T8o+, KTo+, A7o+, Jxs, Qxs, Kxs, Axs, 22+) having an ace do not go up substantially, as opposed to a very tight passive player (who calls, and not 3-bets, our raise with only QQ+, AQ+).
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