As I'm wont to do on a Sunday afternoon, I am lying on my folding cot catching up on my poker reading. In her regular column in Poker Player (February 25, 2013), Barbara Connors writes about the concept of "buying outs". She does, however, make an error in the following paragraph :
Say you call to see a flop with A-7 of spades and the flop comes down J-8-3 with two spades. You have nine outs to the nut flush, which is pretty simple and straightforward, except that the flush is not the only draw you have going for you here. You could also hit one of the remaining three aces, which would give you top pair. Problem is, your top pair would be married to a mediocre kicker. If one of your opponents has a better ace, say ace-king or ace-queen, your three ace outs are tainted, because spiking an ace will only bring you heartache and an expensive second-best hand. But if you think a wellplaced raise can push this particular opponent out of the pot, you’re effectively buying three more outs for your hand, giving yourself a total of 12 good outs to win.
The first reader to correctly identify the mistake wins a free self-administered colonic irrigation.
7 comments:
If your opponent holds an ace, how can you have three additional outs?
I think Snev's the winner! Enjoy the colonic, Snev. Pics are a must.
s.i.
Congratulations to snevman. There are only 2 additional outs, not 3.
Now, snevman, do you have access to a garden hose?
No garden hose, but my brother in law is a firefighter and I'm sure he could provide the necessary water pressure to do the job; although the diameter of those hoses is troubling!
Is an ace-high flush the "nut flush" if the villain could have a straight flush? I'm not sure of the answer, but the villain could have 10s9s and you only have seven outs to the nut flush.
@snevman : Hmmm, looks like I'll have to change the prize as a fire hose could be problematic. How about an autographed napkin?
@MOJO : When determining outs to a flush draw (or any other draw), the convention is to assume that our opponent(s) is not holding any of our outs unless there is strong evidence to the contrary. Furthermore, the flop is described as J-8-3 with two spades. So Js 8s 3x is 1 of 3 possible flop combinations, the other 2 not being pertinent to your scenario. However, even if the flop is specifically Js 8s 3x, the probability that our opponent has exactly Ts9s is 1/1081, and he only has the Qs as a straight flush out (we hold the 7s). Similarly the probability is 1/1081 for each of QsTs and Qs9s, which would give him a gutshot straight flush draw, for a total probability of 3/1081. So instead of 9 outs to the nut flush, we have, say, 8.997 outs, which for our purposes is the same.
@MOJO, the answer to your basic question is YES. I remember a discussion about this with a dealer once. The nut flush is the nut flush, regardless of what else is out there. It might not be the nuts, if there's a pair on the board or if there's a straight flush possible, but it's still the nut flush. I once had A-Q suited and flopped the flush. The woman I was facing played 2-5 of the same suit and flopped a straight flush. I lost, but I did have the nut flush. Just not the nuts.
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