Sunday, August 05, 2007

Aces holding up

Hoyazo has had an incredible run with pocket aces, having them hold up 41 times in succession.

Btw the actual best part about my play on Sunday was the 4-for-4 I went with pocket Aces. This brings my total since I started using pokertracker to 41 wins in 41 times dealt pocket Aces. Average pot size is still over $85 won per time dealt the best starting hand in holdem. And keep in mind, this is over 13,500 hands, meaning that I should have been dealt pocket Aces my 1/221 of the time, representing 61 times I should have been dealt pocket Aces over this stretch. I have gotten them 41 times.

At first glance this seems like an outlier event. After all, if we assume (for simplicity) the aces to be 80% heads-up favorite preflop, then the probability of having them cracked at least once in 41 hands is 99.99%. But after a little thought, it becomes apparent that this run, while freakish, is not as improbable as originally stated. Do you see why?


Beck said...

Because of all the times they win without having to see a showdown.