Alderney suspends FTP license

Joe stumbled into the shelter at about 4:30 this morning and immediately headed for my bunk.

"The Alderney Gambling Control Commission has just suspended Full Tilt's license."

I threw down the 3-year-old Forbes magazine I was reading and let out a bloodcurdling yelp.

"Nooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!"

As I longingly thought about the $17.32 I have trapped on the site, I doused the candle and sought the refuge of sleep.

FTP developments

Subject: Poker is reporting that gambling icon Jack Binion is considering investing in Full Tilt Poker. While this has yet to be substantiated, it is certainly good news after all the doom and gloom we have been subjected to.

Are we close to capitulation?

Market capitulation is defined in Wikipedia :

Market capitulation refers to the threshold reached after a severe fall in the market, when large numbers of investors can no longer tolerate the financial losses incurred. These investors then capitulate (give up) and sell in panic, or find that their pre-set sell stops have been triggered, thereby automatically liquidating their holdings in a given stock. This may trigger a further decline in the stock's price, if not already anticipated by the market. Margin calls and mutual fund and hedge fund redemptions significantly contribute to capitulations.

The contrarians consider a capitulation a sign of a possible bottom in prices. This is because almost everyone who wanted (or was forced) to sell stock has already done so, leaving the buyers in the market, and they are expected to drive the prices up.

The peak in volume may precede an actual bottom.

Why didn't I buy stocks in March, 2009? Because, like everyone else, I was too scared to touch them. And that's when the big money was to be made.

Phil Ivey has capitulated. F-Train has capitulated and finally removed the FTP banner from his blog. TonyG has capitulated and PokerNews is not referring any more clients to FTP. Quadjacks have capitulated. Bill Rini is moving toward capitulation.

2p2 is full of threads harshly criticizing Full Tilt's management and team pros. The company is eulogized in every 5th post, with many US players having written off their funds. Non-US players are complaining about cashout problems.

I'm not sure if we have reached full capitulation, but what this all means to me is that we are closer to a surprise development in this saga. I've been wrong before, but if it were possible to purchase FTP shares, I would start buying now.

Justice for all

Wall Street bankers are still gallivanting around in their $1,000 suits. Not one of them has been indicted for the crimes that they committed in bringing the US and world economies to the brink. Yet the DOJ has finally managed to indict the heinous monsters responsible for polluting America with online poker. As long as we have our priorities right, the future looks rosy.

Following Black Friday, there is no doubt in my mind that the freedom-loving quartet of Frist, Kyl, Goodlatte and Leach will be rewarded with this year's Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Anything less than that, like a CNN Hero award, would be short-changing them.